Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints28
- LeBron JamesAssists7
- Joel EmbiidRebounds11
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints21
- Andre DrummondAssists4
- Andre DrummondRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–100
- Q40.0Knicks offensive team rebound106–100
- Q40.0Karl-Anthony Towns misses 6-foot floating jump shot106–100
- Q43.2Karl-Anthony Towns offensive rebound106–100
- Q43.2OG Anunoby misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot106–100
- Q46.3Tyrese Maxey personal foul106–100
- Q47.7Jalen Brunson enters the game for Andre Drummond106–100
- Q47.7Knicks Full timeout106–100
- Q47.7Andre Drummond enters the game for Jalen Brunson106–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:04Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 96 – 90 NY · PHI 63% → 78% +15PHI 63% → 78%+15 pts
- Q44:37Karl-Anthony Towns makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)PHI 96 – 95 NY · NY 28% → 47% +19NY 28% → 47%+19 pts
- Q43:31Joel Embiid makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)PHI 99 – 95 NY · PHI 54% → 75% +21PHI 54% → 75%+21 pts
- Q42:40Karl-Anthony Towns makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)PHI 100 – 98 NY · NY 15% → 35% +20NY 15% → 35%+20 pts
- Q42:15VJ Edgecombe makes dunk (Joel Embiid assists)PHI 102 – 98 NY · PHI 66% → 82% +15PHI 66% → 82%+15 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Knicks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- NY -4.5
- ML PHI +150 / NY -180
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -7
- NY 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +13.7 pts
- NY: Elo 75.3%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- NY -161
- PHI +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 114.0 – 118.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1671 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +40 | Worth 40 Elo in the NBA |
| Elo ratings | NY +194 Elo | NY 75.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 75.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 75.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 116.510th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.1 | Points allowed | 110.25th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +6.45th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 117.63rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 111.17th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.6 | Pace | 98.627th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 30–104th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 30 |
| 15th of 301517 | Elo rating | 16731st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+71 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  PHI |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 50–43 | 57–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 27–18 | 43–37 |
| Underdog | 23–25 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 45–48 | 48–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–17 NY in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 22.
- May 10NY 144 @ PHI 114PlayoffsPicked NY 53%Hit
- May 8NY 108 @ PHI 94PlayoffsPicked PHI 58%Miss
- May 6PHI 102 @ NY 108PlayoffsPicked NY 79%Hit
- May 4PHI 98 @ NY 137PlayoffsPicked NY 71%Hit
- Feb 11NY 138 @ PHI 89Picked NY 55%Hit
- Jan 24NY 112 @ PHI 109Picked NY 51%Hit
- Jan 3PHI 130 @ NY 119Picked NY 61%Miss
- Dec 19PHI 116 @ NY 107Picked NY 68%Miss