New York Knicks at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints30
- Josh HartAssists6
- Josh HartRebounds15
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints26
- De'Aaron FoxAssists5
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–95
- Q49.6Josh Hart defensive rebound105–95
- Q413.0Julian Champagnie misses 25-foot three point jumper105–95
- Q420.6OG Anunoby makes free throw 2 of 2105–95
- Q420.6Landry Shamet enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns104–95
- Q420.6OG Anunoby makes free throw 1 of 2104–95
- Q420.6Stephon Castle personal take foul103–95
- Q421.1Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Landry Shamet103–95
- Q421.1Knicks Full timeout103–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:23OG Anunoby makes 23-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)NY 83 – 79 SA · NY 49% → 63% +14NY 49% → 63%+14 pts
- Q48:50OG Anunoby makes 23-foot three point jumperNY 86 – 81 SA · NY 55% → 68% +14NY 55% → 68%+14 pts
- Q48:32Stephon Castle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)NY 86 – 84 SA · SA 31% → 45% +14SA 31% → 45%+14 pts
- Q43:24Victor Wembanyama makes driving layupNY 94 – 92 SA · SA 24% → 38% +14SA 24% → 38%+14 pts
- Q41:50Jalen Brunson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)NY 97 – 95 SA · NY 37% → 68% +31NY 37% → 68%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- SA -4.5
- ML NY +150 / SA -180
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -0.5
- SA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- SA: Elo 52.5%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- SA -161
- NY +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 106.5 – 111.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1773 | 1745 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +36 | +46 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +18 Elo | SA 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 60.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 119.73rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.2 | Points allowed | 111.78th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.4 | Margin | +8.13rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.6 | Offense rating | 117.44th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 109.53rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.6 | Pace | 101.714th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 32–82nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 1st of 301773 | Elo rating | 17452nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 54–43 | 60–41 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 43–35 | 44–33 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 16–8 |
| Overs–unders | 47–50 | 47–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 4–3 SA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.