San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints22
- Stephon CastleAssists6
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds7
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints35
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists9
- Jaylin WilliamsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–103
- Q44.1Devin Vassell makes running dunk (De'Aaron Fox assists)111–103
- Q48.4Julian Champagnie defensive rebound109–103
- Q412.5Cason Wallace misses 29-foot three point jumper109–103
- Q417.1Thunder offensive team rebound109–103
- Q418.2Alex Caruso misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot109–103
- Q422.3Julian Champagnie enters the game for Dylan Harper109–103
- Q422.3Jared McCain enters the game for Kenrich Williams109–103
- Q422.3Jaylin Williams enters the game for Luguentz Dort109–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:08Jaylin Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)SA 79 – 77 OKC · OKC 34% → 45% +11OKC 34% → 45%+11 pts
- Q411:06Keldon Johnson makes 24-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SA 84 – 79 OKC · SA 56% → 68% +12SA 56% → 68%+12 pts
- Q410:53Cason Wallace makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaylin Williams assists)SA 84 – 82 OKC · OKC 32% → 44% +12OKC 32% → 44%+12 pts
- Q410:33Keldon Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Victor Wembanyama assists)SA 87 – 82 OKC · SA 56% → 68% +13SA 56% → 68%+13 pts
- Q48:43Victor Wembanyama makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotSA 95 – 86 OKC · SA 75% → 85% +10SA 75% → 85%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -3.5
- ML SA +120 / OKC -142
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -0.5
- OKC 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- OKC: Elo 47.3%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- OKC -129
- SA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 104.0 – 107.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 211.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1737 | 1733 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +39 | −12 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +19 Elo | SA 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 50.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.7 | Points scored | 119.05th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 107.92nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.1 | Margin | +11.11st of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.4 | Offense rating | 116.86th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 105.81st of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.7 | Pace | 100.919th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3029–12 | Road vs home | 34–71st of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301737 | Elo rating | 17333rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 59–41 | 47–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 44–33 | 43–45 |
| Underdog | 15–8 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 46–54 | 54–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 9–9 OKC in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.
- May 28OKC 91 @ SA 118PlayoffsPicked SA 60%Hit
- May 26SA 114 @ OKC 127PlayoffsPicked OKC 59%Hit
- May 24OKC 82 @ SA 103PlayoffsPicked SA 57%Hit
- May 22OKC 123 @ SA 108PlayoffsPicked SA 57%Miss
- May 20SA 113 @ OKC 122PlayoffsPicked OKC 69%Hit
- May 18SA 122 @ OKC 115PlayoffsPicked OKC 70%Miss
- Feb 4OKC 106 @ SA 116Picked SA 77%Hit
- Jan 13SA 98 @ OKC 119Picked OKC 73%Hit