San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints41
- Stephon CastleAssists11
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds24
Thunder- Alex CarusoPoints31
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists12
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds8
Last plays
- 2OT0.0End of Game122–115
- 2OT0.0End of the 2nd Overtime122–115
- 2OT6.9Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound122–115
- 2OT9.8Alex Caruso misses free throw 3 of 3122–115
- 2OT9.8Luke Kornet enters the game for Stephon Castle122–115
- 2OT9.8Carter Bryant enters the game for Dylan Harper122–115
- 2OT9.8Isaiah Hartenstein enters the game for Jared McCain122–115
- 2OT9.8Thunder offensive team rebound122–115
- 2OT9.8Alex Caruso misses free throw 2 of 3122–115
- 2OT9.8Alex Caruso makes free throw 1 of 3122–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:51Alex Caruso makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)SA 94 – 95 OKC · OKC 33% → 64% +31OKC 33% → 64%+31 pts
- Q41:26Julian Champagnie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SA 97 – 95 OKC · SA 35% → 70% +35SA 35% → 70%+35 pts
- Q411.5Victor Wembanyama makes 3-foot turnaround jump shotSA 101 – 99 OKC · SA 49% → 95% +46SA 49% → 95%+46 pts
- Q43.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 2-foot two point shot (Ajay Mitchell assists)SA 101 – 101 OKC · OKC <1% → 51% +51OKC <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT27.0Victor Wembanyama makes 27-foot running jump shot (Stephon Castle assists)SA 108 – 108 OKC · SA 5% → 48% +43SA 5% → 48%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -7.5
- ML SA +215 / OKC -265
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -3.5
- OKC 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- OKC: Elo 64.5%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- OKC -229
- SA +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 106.0 – 113.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1725 | 1745 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +17 | +65 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +104 Elo | OKC 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 74.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 73.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.7 | Points scored | 119.05th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 107.92nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.1 | Margin | +11.11st of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.4 | Offense rating | 116.86th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 105.81st of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.7 | Pace | 100.919th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3029–12 | Road vs home | 34–71st of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301725 | Elo rating | 17451st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 56–38 | 44–46 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 42–32 | 41–44 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 42–52 | 50–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 6–6 OKC in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.
- Feb 4OKC 106 @ SA 116Picked SA 77%Hit
- Jan 13SA 98 @ OKC 119Picked OKC 73%Hit
- Dec 25SA 117 @ OKC 102Picked OKC 75%Miss
- Dec 23OKC 110 @ SA 130Picked OKC 67%Miss
- Dec 13SA 111 @ OKC 109Picked OKC 82%Miss
- Mar 2OKC 146 @ SA 132Picked OKC 85%Hit
- Nov 19OKC 104 @ SA 110Picked OKC 79%Miss
- Oct 30SA 93 @ OKC 105Picked OKC 86%Hit