Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints26
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists12
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds8
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints26
- Stephon CastleAssists7
- Devin VassellRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–108
- Q412.8Kelly Olynyk makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mason Plumlee assists)123–108
- Q425.8Kenrich Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Joe assists)123–105
- Q447.4Mason Plumlee makes layup (Jordan McLaughlin assists)120–105
- Q41:10Kenrich Williams makes tip shot120–103
- Q41:10Kenrich Williams offensive rebound118–103
- Q41:10Mason Plumlee blocks Nikola Topic 's 2-foot two point shot118–103
- Q41:30Kenrich Williams enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein118–103
- Q41:30Isaiah Joe enters the game for Cason Wallace118–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q227.5Jaylin Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alex Caruso assists)OKC 58 – 51 SA · OKC 56% → 65% +8OKC 56% → 65%+8 pts
- Q37:04Jared McCain makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 73 – 64 SA · OKC 65% → 74% +9OKC 65% → 74%+9 pts
- Q34:17Dylan Harper makes 26-foot three point jumper (Carter Bryant assists)OKC 78 – 73 SA · SA 27% → 37% +10SA 27% → 37%+10 pts
- Q33:57Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luguentz Dort assists)OKC 81 – 73 SA · OKC 64% → 73% +10OKC 64% → 73%+10 pts
- Q32:46Alex Caruso makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 87 – 77 SA · OKC 71% → 80% +9OKC 71% → 80%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SA -3.5
- ML OKC +124 / SA -148
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -1
- SA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- SA: Elo 55.0%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- SA -134
- OKC +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 108.0 – 111.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1740 | 1729 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +44 | +53 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +35 Elo | SA 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 53.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 119.73rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.9 | Points allowed | 111.78th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.1 | Margin | +8.13rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.8 | Offense rating | 117.44th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.8 | Defense rating | 109.53rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.9 | Pace | 101.714th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 1st of 3030–10 | Road vs home | 32–82nd of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301740 | Elo rating | 17293rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 45–47 | 57–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 42–45 | 42–32 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders | 52–40 | 44–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 7–7 SA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.
- May 20SA 113 @ OKC 122PlayoffsPicked OKC 69%Hit
- May 18SA 122 @ OKC 115PlayoffsPicked OKC 70%Miss
- Feb 4OKC 106 @ SA 116Picked SA 77%Hit
- Jan 13SA 98 @ OKC 119Picked OKC 73%Hit
- Dec 25SA 117 @ OKC 102Picked OKC 75%Miss
- Dec 23OKC 110 @ SA 130Picked OKC 67%Miss
- Dec 13SA 111 @ OKC 109Picked OKC 82%Miss
- Mar 2OKC 146 @ SA 132Picked OKC 85%Hit