San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Stephon CastlePoints25
- Stephon CastleAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds17
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints30
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists9
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–122
- Q413.1Cason Wallace defensive rebound113–122
- Q416.3Devin Vassell misses 26-foot three point jumper113–122
- Q419.7Chet Holmgren enters the game for Jared McCain113–122
- Q419.7Luguentz Dort enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein113–122
- Q419.7Spurs Full timeout113–122
- Q419.7Alex Caruso makes driving layup (Cason Wallace assists)113–122
- Q428.5Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound113–120
- Q432.2Stephon Castle misses 23-foot three point jumper113–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q354.9Devin Vassell makes 28-foot running jump shot (Jordan McLaughlin assists)SA 88 – 91 OKC · SA 19% → 29% +9SA 19% → 29%+9 pts
- Q410:09Jared McCain makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Joe assists)SA 92 – 99 OKC · OKC 75% → 85% +9OKC 75% → 85%+9 pts
- Q49:06Harrison Barnes makes 22-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SA 97 – 99 OKC · SA 21% → 32% +12SA 21% → 32%+12 pts
- Q48:24Cason Wallace makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)SA 97 – 102 OKC · OKC 68% → 80% +12OKC 68% → 80%+12 pts
- Q48:01Jared McCain makes 25-foot jump bank shot (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)SA 97 – 105 OKC · OKC 80% → 89% +9OKC 80% → 89%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -7.5
- ML SA +210 / OKC -258
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -2.5
- OKC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- OKC: Elo 59.8%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- OKC -223
- SA +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 103.0 – 110.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 213.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1737 | 1733 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +26 | +63 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +69 Elo | OKC 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 69.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 68.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.7 | Points scored | 119.05th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 107.92nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.1 | Margin | +11.11st of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.4 | Offense rating | 116.86th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 105.81st of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.7 | Pace | 100.919th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3029–12 | Road vs home | 34–71st of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301737 | Elo rating | 17333rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+63 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 57–38 | 44–47 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 42–32 | 41–45 |
| Underdog | 15–6 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 43–52 | 51–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 7–6 OKC in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.
- May 18SA 122 @ OKC 115PlayoffsPicked OKC 70%Miss
- Feb 4OKC 106 @ SA 116Picked SA 77%Hit
- Jan 13SA 98 @ OKC 119Picked OKC 73%Hit
- Dec 25SA 117 @ OKC 102Picked OKC 75%Miss
- Dec 23OKC 110 @ SA 130Picked OKC 67%Miss
- Dec 13SA 111 @ OKC 109Picked OKC 82%Miss
- Mar 2OKC 146 @ SA 132Picked OKC 85%Hit
- Nov 19OKC 104 @ SA 110Picked OKC 79%Miss