Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints15
- Jared McCainAssists6
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds11
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints28
- Stephon CastleAssists9
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game91–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter91–118
- Q40.0(00:00) [Thunder] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL REPLAYCENTER)91–118
- Q40.0(00:00) [Thunder] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL REPLAYCENTER)91–118
- Q40.0(00:00) [Thunder] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL REPLAYCENTER)91–118
- Q48.3shot clock turnover91–118
- Q432.5Jordan McLaughlin defensive rebound91–118
- Q435.3Kenrich Williams misses running pullup jump shot91–118
- Q441.6Kenrich Williams defensive rebound91–118
- Q443.5Bismack Biyombo misses 8-foot floating jump shot91–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:52Devin Vassell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)OKC 13 – 17 SA · SA 61% → 68% +6SA 61% → 68%+6 pts
- Q21:36Victor Wembanyama makes 25-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)OKC 48 – 58 SA · SA 75% → 82% +6SA 75% → 82%+6 pts
- Q21:05Cason Wallace makes 27-foot running jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 53 – 58 SA · OKC 22% → 29% +7OKC 22% → 29%+7 pts
- Q311:35Devin Vassell makes 26-foot running jump shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)OKC 53 – 63 SA · SA 76% → 82% +6SA 76% → 82%+6 pts
- Q39:36Julian Champagnie makes 23-foot running jump shot (Stephon Castle assists)OKC 60 – 70 SA · SA 76% → 83% +7SA 76% → 83%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SA -3.5
- ML OKC +140 / SA -166
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -0.5
- SA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- SA: Elo 52.5%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- SA -150
- OKC +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 107.5 – 111.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1752 | 1718 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +28 | +44 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +17 Elo | SA 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 50.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 119.73rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.9 | Points allowed | 111.78th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.1 | Margin | +8.13rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.8 | Offense rating | 117.44th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.8 | Defense rating | 109.53rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.9 | Pace | 101.714th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 1st of 3030–10 | Road vs home | 32–82nd of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301752 | Elo rating | 17183rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–48 | 58–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 43–45 | 43–33 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders | 54–41 | 46–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 9–8 SA in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.
- May 26SA 114 @ OKC 127PlayoffsPicked OKC 59%Hit
- May 24OKC 82 @ SA 103PlayoffsPicked SA 57%Hit
- May 22OKC 123 @ SA 108PlayoffsPicked SA 57%Miss
- May 20SA 113 @ OKC 122PlayoffsPicked OKC 69%Hit
- May 18SA 122 @ OKC 115PlayoffsPicked OKC 70%Miss
- Feb 4OKC 106 @ SA 116Picked SA 77%Hit
- Jan 13SA 98 @ OKC 119Picked OKC 73%Hit
- Dec 25SA 117 @ OKC 102Picked OKC 75%Miss