San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Stephon CastlePoints24
- De'Aaron FoxAssists8
- Julian ChampagnieRebounds8
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints32
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists9
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–127
- Q413.0Jordan McLaughlin makes free throw 2 of 2114–127
- Q413.0Jordan McLaughlin makes free throw 1 of 2113–127
- Q413.0Isaiah Joe shooting foul112–127
- Q419.7Kenrich Williams makes tip shot112–127
- Q420.0Kenrich Williams offensive rebound112–125
- Q421.7Jared McCain misses 27-foot three point jumper112–125
- Q437.3Kelly Olynyk makes free throw 2 of 2112–125
- Q437.3Kelly Olynyk makes free throw 1 of 2111–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:19Kenrich Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)SA 20 – 20 OKC · OKC 51% → 58% +7OKC 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q155.0Carter Bryant makes 26-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SA 27 – 24 OKC · SA 42% → 49% +7SA 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q131.2Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alex Caruso assists)SA 27 – 27 OKC · OKC 51% → 58% +7OKC 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q24:30Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)SA 46 – 52 OKC · OKC 65% → 72% +7OKC 65% → 72%+7 pts
- Q23:47Dylan Harper makes 25-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SA 49 – 54 OKC · SA 23% → 30% +7SA 23% → 30%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -3.5
- ML SA +136 / OKC -162
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- OKC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- OKC: Elo 50.5%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- OKC -146
- SA +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 106.5 – 110.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1730 | 1740 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +46 | +4 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +4 Elo | OKC 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 52.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.7 | Points scored | 119.05th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 107.92nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.1 | Margin | +11.11st of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.4 | Offense rating | 116.86th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 105.81st of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.7 | Pace | 100.919th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3029–12 | Road vs home | 34–71st of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301730 | Elo rating | 17402nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 58–40 | 46–48 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 43–33 | 42–45 |
| Underdog | 15–7 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 45–53 | 53–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 8–8 OKC in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.
- May 24OKC 82 @ SA 103PlayoffsPicked SA 57%Hit
- May 22OKC 123 @ SA 108PlayoffsPicked SA 57%Miss
- May 20SA 113 @ OKC 122PlayoffsPicked OKC 69%Hit
- May 18SA 122 @ OKC 115PlayoffsPicked OKC 70%Miss
- Feb 4OKC 106 @ SA 116Picked SA 77%Hit
- Jan 13SA 98 @ OKC 119Picked OKC 73%Hit
- Dec 25SA 117 @ OKC 102Picked OKC 75%Miss
- Dec 23OKC 110 @ SA 130Picked OKC 67%Miss