Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints19
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists7
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds9
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints33
- Stephon CastleAssists6
- De'Aaron FoxRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game82–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter82–103
- Q44.0shot clock turnover82–103
- Q428.1Kenrich Williams makes 1-foot layup (Nikola Topic assists)82–103
- Q438.7Kelly Olynyk makes 25-foot three point jumper (Lindy Waters III assists)80–103
- Q455.9Nikola Topic makes running layup (Kenrich Williams assists)80–100
- Q458.8Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound78–100
- Q41:01Jordan McLaughlin misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot78–100
- Q41:13Isaiah Joe makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot78–100
- Q41:30Jaylin Williams defensive rebound75–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:36Victor Wembanyama makes 27-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)OKC 0 – 3 SA · SA 57% → 63% +6SA 57% → 63%+6 pts
- Q16:09Stephon Castle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dylan Harper assists)OKC 8 – 16 SA · SA 67% → 73% +6SA 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q15:40Devin Vassell makes 25-foot running jump shot (Stephon Castle assists)OKC 8 – 19 SA · SA 73% → 78% +5SA 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q20.8Victor Wembanyama makes 42-foot three pointer (Devin Vassell assists)OKC 38 – 50 SA · SA 79% → 84% +6SA 79% → 84%+6 pts
- Q311:42Cason Wallace makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)OKC 41 – 50 SA · OKC 15% → 21% +6OKC 15% → 21%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SA -2.5
- ML OKC +124 / SA -148
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -1
- SA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- SA: Elo 53.2%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- SA -134
- OKC +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 108.5 – 111.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1755 | 1714 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +22 | +49 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +22 Elo | SA 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 51.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 119.73rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.9 | Points allowed | 111.78th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.1 | Margin | +8.13rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.8 | Offense rating | 117.44th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.8 | Defense rating | 109.53rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.9 | Pace | 101.714th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 1st of 3030–10 | Road vs home | 32–82nd of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301755 | Elo rating | 17143rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–47 | 57–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 42–45 | 42–33 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders | 53–40 | 45–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 8–7 SA in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.
- May 22OKC 123 @ SA 108PlayoffsPicked SA 57%Miss
- May 20SA 113 @ OKC 122PlayoffsPicked OKC 69%Hit
- May 18SA 122 @ OKC 115PlayoffsPicked OKC 70%Miss
- Feb 4OKC 106 @ SA 116Picked SA 77%Hit
- Jan 13SA 98 @ OKC 119Picked OKC 73%Hit
- Dec 25SA 117 @ OKC 102Picked OKC 75%Miss
- Dec 23OKC 110 @ SA 130Picked OKC 67%Miss
- Dec 13SA 111 @ OKC 109Picked OKC 82%Miss