New York Knicks at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints21
- Mikal BridgesAssists6
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds13
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints29
- De'Aaron FoxAssists5
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–104
- Q42.0Knicks defensive team rebound105–104
- Q42.0Victor Wembanyama misses 20-foot jumper105–104
- Q47.5Mitchell Robinson enters the game for Jalen Brunson105–104
- Q47.5Dylan Harper enters the game for Julian Champagnie105–104
- Q47.5Spurs Full timeout105–104
- Q47.5Luke Kornet defensive rebound105–104
- Q49.5Jalen Brunson misses free throw 2 of 2105–104
- Q49.5Julian Champagnie enters the game for Dylan Harper105–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:55Devin Vassell makes 25-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)NY 97 – 95 SA · SA 21% → 40% +19SA 21% → 40%+19 pts
- Q41:25Dylan Harper makes running layup (Devin Vassell assists)NY 102 – 101 SA · SA 20% → 41% +21SA 20% → 41%+21 pts
- Q457.3Victor Wembanyama makes layup (Dylan Harper assists)NY 102 – 103 SA · SA 38% → 67% +29SA 38% → 67%+29 pts
- Q439.3Jalen Brunson makes 13-foot fade away jump shotNY 104 – 104 SA · NY 17% → 48% +31NY 17% → 48%+31 pts
- Q49.5Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 2NY 105 – 104 SA · NY 49% → 81% +32NY 49% → 81%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- SA -6.5
- ML NY +185 / SA -225
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -0.5
- SA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −17.6 pts
- SA: Elo 48.8%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- SA -197
- NY +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 105.5 – 112.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1784 | 1734 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +36 | +42 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +8 Elo | NY 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 58.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 119.73rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.2 | Points allowed | 111.78th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.4 | Margin | +8.13rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.6 | Offense rating | 117.44th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 109.53rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.6 | Pace | 101.714th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 32–82nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 1st of 301784 | Elo rating | 17342nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 55–43 | 60–42 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 43–35 | 44–34 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 16–8 |
| Overs–unders | 47–51 | 47–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 5–3 SA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
- Jun 3NY 105 @ SA 95PlayoffsPicked SA 62%Miss
- Mar 1SA 89 @ NY 114Picked SA 52%Miss
- Dec 31NY 132 @ SA 134Picked SA 59%Hit
- Dec 16SA 113 @ NY 124Picked NY 55%Hit
- Mar 19NY 105 @ SA 120Picked NY 75%Miss
- Dec 25SA 114 @ NY 117Picked NY 75%Hit
- Mar 29NY 126 @ SA 130Picked NY 71%Miss
- Nov 8SA 105 @ NY 126Picked NY 53%Hit