San Antonio Spurs at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints32
- De'Aaron FoxAssists8
- Dylan HarperRebounds9
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints32
- Jalen BrunsonAssists5
- Josh HartRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–111
- Q41.0Knicks offensive team rebound115–111
- Q41.0OG Anunoby misses 23-foot three point jumper115–111
- Q42.1Knicks offensive team rebound115–111
- Q44.8Mikal Bridges misses 27-foot turnaround jump shot115–111
- Q46.8Jalen Brunson enters the game for Mitchell Robinson115–111
- Q46.8Knicks Full timeout115–111
- Q46.8Stephon Castle makes free throw 2 of 2115–111
- Q46.8Mitchell Robinson enters the game for Jalen Brunson114–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:14Landry Shamet makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jose Alvarado assists)SA 86 – 84 NY · NY 33% → 44% +11NY 33% → 44%+11 pts
- Q31:51Julian Champagnie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dylan Harper assists)SA 89 – 84 NY · SA 56% → 67% +11SA 56% → 67%+11 pts
- Q349.4Jordan Clarkson makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotSA 89 – 89 NY · NY 40% → 52% +12NY 40% → 52%+12 pts
- Q333.5Dylan Harper makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotSA 92 – 89 NY · SA 48% → 60% +12SA 48% → 60%+12 pts
- Q41:53Stephon Castle makes 26-foot three point jumper (Victor Wembanyama assists)SA 111 – 104 NY · SA 85% → 97% +12SA 85% → 97%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- NY -1.5
- ML SA +105 / NY -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -3
- NY 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.3 pts
- NY: Elo 62.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NY -114
- SA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 107.0 – 108.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1730 | 1788 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +42 | +37 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | SA crossed 1 time zone and NY crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +89 Elo | NY 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 51.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.7 | Points scored | 116.510th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 110.25th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.1 | Margin | +6.45th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.4 | Offense rating | 117.63rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 111.17th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.7 | Pace | 98.627th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3029–12 | Road vs home | 30–104th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149029th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301730 | Elo rating | 17881st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 60–43 | 56–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 44–35 | 43–35 |
| Underdog | 16–8 | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders | 47–56 | 47–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 3–6 NY in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.
- Jun 5NY 105 @ SA 104PlayoffsPicked SA 66%Miss
- Jun 3NY 105 @ SA 95PlayoffsPicked SA 62%Miss
- Mar 1SA 89 @ NY 114Picked SA 52%Miss
- Dec 31NY 132 @ SA 134Picked SA 59%Hit
- Dec 16SA 113 @ NY 124Picked NY 55%Hit
- Mar 19NY 105 @ SA 120Picked NY 75%Miss
- Dec 25SA 114 @ NY 117Picked NY 75%Hit
- Mar 29NY 126 @ SA 130Picked NY 71%Miss