San Antonio Spurs at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints24
- De'Aaron FoxAssists7
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds13
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints36
- Jalen BrunsonAssists7
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–107
- Q41.2Mitchell Robinson enters the game for Landry Shamet106–107
- Q41.2Josh Hart enters the game for Jalen Brunson106–107
- Q41.2Spurs Full timeout106–107
- Q42.1OG Anunoby makes tip shot106–107
- Q42.3OG Anunoby offensive rebound106–105
- Q44.4Jalen Brunson misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot106–105
- Q45.7Mikal Bridges enters the game for Jose Alvarado106–105
- Q45.7Landry Shamet enters the game for Josh Hart106–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:21Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three pointer (Jose Alvarado assists)SA 104 – 103 NY · NY 18% → 42% +24NY 18% → 42%+24 pts
- Q41:22Jalen Brunson makes 5-foot driving floating jump shotSA 104 – 105 NY · NY 39% → 63% +24NY 39% → 63%+24 pts
- Q430.3Stephon Castle makes free throw 1 of 2SA 105 – 105 NY · SA 30% → 49% +19SA 30% → 49%+19 pts
- Q430.3Stephon Castle makes free throw 2 of 2SA 106 – 105 NY · SA 49% → 69% +19SA 49% → 69%+19 pts
- Q42.1OG Anunoby makes tip shotSA 106 – 107 NY · NY 3% → 97% +95NY 3% → 97%+95 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- NY -2.5
- ML SA +114 / NY -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -2.5
- NY 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- NY: Elo 59.8%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- NY -123
- SA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 107.0 – 109.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1739 | 1780 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +43 | +35 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +69 Elo | NY 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 50.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.7 | Points scored | 116.510th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 110.25th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.1 | Margin | +6.45th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.4 | Offense rating | 117.63rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 111.17th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.7 | Pace | 98.627th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3029–12 | Road vs home | 30–104th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149029th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301739 | Elo rating | 17801st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 61–43 | 56–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 44–35 | 43–36 |
| Underdog | 17–8 | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders | 48–56 | 48–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 4–6 NY in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.
- Jun 8SA 115 @ NY 111PlayoffsPicked NY 53%Miss
- Jun 5NY 105 @ SA 104PlayoffsPicked SA 66%Miss
- Jun 3NY 105 @ SA 95PlayoffsPicked SA 62%Miss
- Mar 1SA 89 @ NY 114Picked SA 52%Miss
- Dec 31NY 132 @ SA 134Picked SA 59%Hit
- Dec 16SA 113 @ NY 124Picked NY 55%Hit
- Mar 19NY 105 @ SA 120Picked NY 75%Miss
- Dec 25SA 114 @ NY 117Picked NY 75%Hit