Toronto Raptors at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Ja'Kobe WalterPoints22
- Allen GravesAssists4
- Collin Murray-BoylesRebounds7
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints26
- LaMelo BallAssists8
- Rudy GobertRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–117
- Q420.0Bones Hyland defensive rebound94–117
- Q420.0Allen Graves misses 25-foot three point jumper94–117
- Q431.5Timberwolves offensive team rebound94–117
- Q431.5Jaylen Clark makes free throw 2 of 294–117
- Q431.5Jaylen Clark misses free throw 1 of 294–116
- Q431.5Jamison Battle shooting foul94–116
- Q441.2Allen Graves makes tip shot94–116
- Q444.4Allen Graves offensive rebound92–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:43LaMelo Ball makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotTOR 3 – 5 MIN · MIN 53% → 60% +6MIN 53% → 60%+6 pts
- Q18:48LaMelo Ball makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)TOR 5 – 10 MIN · MIN 60% → 66% +6MIN 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q17:41Jonathan Kuminga makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)TOR 7 – 13 MIN · MIN 62% → 68% +6MIN 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q22:03Ja'Kobe Walter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 43 – 51 MIN · TOR 19% → 25% +6TOR 19% → 25%+6 pts
- Q252.0Immanuel Quickley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 46 – 55 MIN · TOR 17% → 23% +6TOR 17% → 23%+6 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Timberwolves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -0.5
- MIN 53%
- Fair odds
- MIN -125
- TOR +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 110.9 – 112.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1604 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | −46 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +19 Elo | MIN 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.6 | Points scored | 118.07th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 114.612th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.8 | Margin | +3.410th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 114.612th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 111.38th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.1 | Pace | 102.410th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–517th of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149427th of 30 |
| 12th of 301541 | Elo rating | 16044th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+6 Elo- Kawhi Leonard left knee swelling−62 Elo
Timberwolves
−42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  TOR |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–42 | 43–51 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 26–23 | 27–34 |
| Underdog | 21–19 | 16–17 |
| Overs–unders | 37–52 | 45–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–4 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.