Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints28
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists6
- Scottie BarnesRebounds14
Wizards- Trae YoungPoints22
- Trae YoungAssists12
- Anthony DavisRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–102
- Q42.9shot clock turnover112–102
- Q427.2Felix Okpara makes free throw 2 of 2112–102
- Q427.2Wizards offensive team rebound112–101
- Q427.2Felix Okpara misses free throw 1 of 2112–101
- Q427.2Trayce Jackson-Davis personal foul112–101
- Q434.3Jaden Bradley enters the game for Kawhi Leonard112–101
- Q434.3Trayce Jackson-Davis enters the game for Immanuel Quickley112–101
- Q434.3Allen Graves enters the game for Scottie Barnes112–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q315.0Jamison Battle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 81 – 77 WSH · TOR 67% → 77% +10TOR 67% → 77%+10 pts
- Q411:16Kawhi Leonard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 86 – 79 WSH · TOR 77% → 86% +9TOR 77% → 86%+9 pts
- Q48:31Tre Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)TOR 92 – 86 WSH · WSH 8% → 16% +7WSH 8% → 16%+7 pts
- Q48:04Trae Young makes 28-foot three pointerTOR 94 – 89 WSH · WSH 10% → 18% +8WSH 10% → 18%+8 pts
- Q46:17Tre Johnson makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Deandre Ayton assists)TOR 98 – 92 WSH · WSH 6% → 14% +7WSH 6% → 14%+7 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Raptors 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -8.5
- ML TOR -340 / WSH +270
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -4.5
- TOR 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 66.5%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -286
- WSH +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 123.0 – 114.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1343 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +35 | +70 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Missing Tristan Vukcevic −2, AJ Dybantsa −2, Felix Okpara (40% to sit) −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +119 Elo | TOR 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 69.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 69.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.6 | Points scored | 112.925th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 124.929th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.8 | Margin | −12.030th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 108.829th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 120.330th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.1 | Pace | 103.46th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 11–3029th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15048th of 30 |
| 14th of 301536 | Elo rating | 134230th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+64 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
+75 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  TOR |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–42 | 33–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 26–23 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 21–19 | 31–46 |
| Overs–unders | 37–52 | 47–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 8–3 WSH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Feb 28TOR 134 @ WSH 125Picked TOR 86%Hit
- Dec 26TOR 117 @ WSH 138Picked TOR 73%Miss
- Nov 21WSH 110 @ TOR 140Picked TOR 86%Hit
- Mar 24TOR 112 @ WSH 104Picked WSH 54%Miss
- Mar 10WSH 104 @ TOR 119Picked TOR 69%Hit
- Mar 8WSH 118 @ TOR 117Picked TOR 62%Miss
- Jan 29TOR 106 @ WSH 82Picked TOR 67%Hit
- Apr 7WSH 122 @ TOR 130Picked WSH 50%Miss