Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Matas BuzelisPoints17
- Josh GiddeyAssists6
- Jalen SmithRebounds8
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints23
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists7
- Collin Murray-BoylesRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game92–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter92–135
- Q420.2shot clock turnover92–135
- Q444.3Matas Buzelis makes free throw 2 of 292–135
- Q444.3Matas Buzelis makes free throw 1 of 291–135
- Q444.3Jaden Bradley loose ball foul90–135
- Q459.7Alijah Martin out of bounds bad pass turnover90–135
- Q41:01Caleb Wilson lost ball turnover (Allen Graves steals)90–135
- Q41:20Bulls defensive team rebound90–135
- Q41:20Alijah Martin misses free throw 2 of 290–135
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:47RJ Barrett makes driving layup (Kawhi Leonard assists)CHI 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 78% → 81% +3TOR 78% → 81%+3 pts
- Q111:21Kawhi Leonard makes 25-foot running jump shot (Immanuel Quickley assists)CHI 0 – 5 TOR · TOR 81% → 85% +4TOR 81% → 85%+4 pts
- Q18:54Jalen Smith makes dunk (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 6 – 9 TOR · CHI 16% → 18% +3CHI 16% → 18%+3 pts
- Q17:38Immanuel Quickley makes running layup (Scottie Barnes assists)CHI 6 – 11 TOR · TOR 81% → 84% +3TOR 81% → 84%+3 pts
- Q14:19Immanuel Quickley makes 25-foot three pointer (Jamal Shead assists)CHI 10 – 21 TOR · TOR 88% → 91% +3TOR 88% → 91%+3 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Raptors 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -9.5
- ML CHI +330 / TOR -425
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -6
- TOR 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 72.2%, market 77.7%
- Fair odds
- TOR -348
- CHI +348 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 113.5 – 123.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1404 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +40 | Worth 40 Elo in the NBA |
| Elo ratings | TOR +166 Elo | TOR 72.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 72.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 77.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 114.621st of 30 |
| 28th of 30121.5 | Points allowed | 111.89th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−5.2 | Margin | +2.811th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 113.915th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.2 | Defense rating | 111.16th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.9 | Pace | 100.121st of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 21st of 3013–28 | Road vs home | 24–1714th of 30 |
| 11th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 26th of 301407 | Elo rating | 152514th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  CHI |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–44 | 47–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–21 | 26–23 |
| Underdog | 29–23 | 21–19 |
| Overs–unders | 37–45 | 37–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 6–5 TOR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.
- Mar 18TOR 139 @ CHI 109Picked TOR 71%Hit
- Feb 19TOR 110 @ CHI 101Picked TOR 66%Hit
- Feb 5CHI 107 @ TOR 123Picked TOR 73%Hit
- Apr 1TOR 118 @ CHI 137Picked CHI 61%Hit
- Feb 28TOR 115 @ CHI 125Picked CHI 52%Hit
- Jan 31CHI 122 @ TOR 106Picked TOR 60%Miss
- Dec 16CHI 122 @ TOR 121Picked CHI 51%Hit
- Jan 30TOR 118 @ CHI 107Picked CHI 70%Miss