Chicago Bulls at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Rob DillinghamPoints25
- Lachlan OlbrichAssists10
- Lachlan OlbrichRebounds15
Mavericks- John PoulakidasPoints28
- Ryan NembhardAssists23
- Moussa CisseRebounds20
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–149
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–149
- Q417.9Mac McClung makes driving layup (Lachlan Olbrich assists)128–149
- Q420.7AJ Johnson makes driving layup126–149
- Q434.4Mac McClung makes free throw 1 of 1126–147
- Q434.4Ryan Nembhard shooting foul125–147
- Q434.4Mac McClung makes 1-foot layup (Yuki Kawamura assists)125–147
- Q439.7John Poulakidas makes 25-foot three pointer (Ryan Nembhard assists)123–147
- Q446.2Moussa Cisse defensive rebound123–144
- Q452.4Rob Dillingham misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot123–144
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:41Max Christie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dwight Powell assists)CHI 4 – 5 DAL · DAL 60% → 66% +6DAL 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q110:15Max Christie makes 22-foot running jump shot (Ryan Nembhard assists)CHI 4 – 8 DAL · DAL 66% → 72% +6DAL 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q19:33Khris Middleton makes 23-foot running jump shot (Ryan Nembhard assists)CHI 4 – 11 DAL · DAL 72% → 77% +5DAL 72% → 77%+5 pts
- Q18:43Khris Middleton makes 22-foot three point jumper (Max Christie assists)CHI 4 – 16 DAL · DAL 80% → 84% +4DAL 80% → 84%+4 pts
- Q210:44Tyler Smith makes 22-foot three point jumper (John Poulakidas assists)CHI 36 – 50 DAL · DAL 84% → 88% +4DAL 84% → 88%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -5.5
- ML CHI +170 / DAL -205
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -0.5
- DAL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −17.0 pts
- DAL: Elo 47.5%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- DAL -181
- CHI +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 122.0 – 127.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 249.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1364 | 1341 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | −38 | CHI: Missing Anfernee Simons −4, Zach Collins −4 · DAL: Missing Marvin Bagley III −14, Naji Marshall −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +17 Elo | CHI 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 113.724th of 30 |
| 28th of 30121.2 | Points allowed | 119.523rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−5.0 | Margin | −5.824th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 108.928th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 114.519th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.8 | Pace | 103.46th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 21st of 3013–27 | Road vs home | 15–2524th of 30 |
| 10th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15074th of 30 |
| 24th of 301364 | Elo rating | 134126th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−7 Elo- Anfernee Simons left arm−4 Elo
- Zach Collins right toe−4 Elo
Mavericks
−38 Elo- Marvin Bagley III left shoulder−14 Elo
- Naji Marshall left hip injury−9 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–43 | 35–46 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–21 | 8–15 |
| Underdog | 29–22 | 27–31 |
| Overs–unders | 36–45 | 36–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–4 DAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.