Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Tyler HerroPoints24
- Tyler HerroAssists9
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Rebounds7
Wizards- Anthony DavisPoints34
- Trae YoungAssists13
- Anthony DavisRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–128
- Q43.1Anthony Davis defensive rebound116–128
- Q43.1Tyler Herro misses 36-foot three point jumper116–128
- Q46.1shot clock turnover116–128
- Q432.1Kyshawn George defensive rebound116–128
- Q432.1Ousmane Dieng misses 25-foot three point jumper116–128
- Q438.7AJ Green enters the game for Jaime Jaquez Jr.116–128
- Q438.7Trae Young makes free throw 2 of 2116–128
- Q438.7Wizards offensive team rebound116–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:27AJ Green makes 25-foot three pointer (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)MIL 87 – 83 WSH · MIL 47% → 58% +12MIL 47% → 58%+12 pts
- Q31:02Brayden Burries makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)MIL 90 – 85 WSH · MIL 51% → 62% +12MIL 51% → 62%+12 pts
- Q330.6Brayden Burries makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Ousmane Dieng assists)MIL 93 – 87 WSH · MIL 55% → 67% +12MIL 55% → 67%+12 pts
- Q411:39Ryan Rollins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)MIL 96 – 90 WSH · MIL 56% → 68% +12MIL 56% → 68%+12 pts
- Q411:26Justin Champagnie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)MIL 96 – 93 WSH · WSH 32% → 44% +12WSH 32% → 44%+12 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Wizards 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- WSH -4.5
- ML MIL +164 / WSH -198
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -1.5
- WSH 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −18.8 pts
- WSH: Elo 44.8%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- WSH -175
- MIL +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 117.0 – 121.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1405 | 1330 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +40 | Worth 40 Elo in the NBA |
| Injuries | −6 | −7 | Key absences: Jamir Watkins, Jericho Sims |
| Elo ratings | MIL +36 Elo | MIL 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30110.6 | Points scored | 112.925th of 30 |
| 20th of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 124.929th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.2 | Margin | −12.030th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 108.829th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.4 | Defense rating | 120.330th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.1 | Pace | 103.46th of 30 |
| 20th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 21st of 3013–28 | Road vs home | 11–3029th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 21st of 301440 | Elo rating | 133130th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
+66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  MIL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–46 | 33–49 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 11–18 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 25–28 | 31–46 |
| Overs–unders | 39–43 | 47–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 6–4 WSH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Jan 29MIL 99 @ WSH 109Picked MIL 53%Miss
- Dec 31WSH 114 @ MIL 113Picked MIL 80%Miss
- Dec 1MIL 126 @ WSH 129Picked MIL 78%Miss
- Oct 22WSH 120 @ MIL 133Picked MIL 76%Hit
- Feb 21MIL 104 @ WSH 101Picked MIL 65%Hit
- Dec 21WSH 101 @ MIL 112Picked MIL 76%Hit
- Nov 30WSH 114 @ MIL 124Picked MIL 88%Hit
- Apr 2MIL 113 @ WSH 117Picked MIL 68%Miss