Minnesota Timberwolves at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Jaden McDanielsPoints15
- Ayo DosunmuAssists10
- Rudy GobertRebounds9
Magic- Wendell Carter Jr.Points20
- Jalen SuggsAssists6
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–93
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–93
- Q423.5Jaylen Clark defensive rebound115–93
- Q423.5Jase Richardson misses driving layup115–93
- Q434.5Terrence Shannon Jr. out of bounds bad pass turnover115–93
- Q446.9Jaylen Clark defensive rebound115–93
- Q446.9Colin Castleton misses free throw 2 of 2115–93
- Q446.9Colin Castleton makes free throw 1 of 2115–93
- Q446.9Bones Hyland shooting foul115–92
- Q459.9Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Evans assists)115–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:46Jonathan Kuminga makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)MIN 11 – 5 ORL · MIN 55% → 61% +6MIN 55% → 61%+6 pts
- Q12:08Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 25-foot three pointer (Ayo Dosunmu assists)MIN 21 – 13 ORL · MIN 60% → 67% +7MIN 60% → 67%+7 pts
- Q113.5Tristan da Silva makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jase Richardson assists)MIN 26 – 20 ORL · ORL 31% → 37% +7ORL 31% → 37%+7 pts
- Q310:17Jaden McDaniels makes 23-foot running jump shot (Jonathan Kuminga assists)MIN 60 – 47 ORL · MIN 77% → 83% +6MIN 77% → 83%+6 pts
- Q39:59Desmond Bane makes 24-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)MIN 60 – 50 ORL · ORL 17% → 23% +6ORL 17% → 23%+6 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Magic 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -1.5
- ML MIN -102 / ORL -118
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -1.5
- ORL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- ORL: Elo 56.0%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- ORL -107
- MIN +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 116.5 – 118.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1584 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −60 | +22 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +42 Elo | ORL 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 59.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 115.715th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 115.113th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.4 | Margin | +0.617th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 112.619th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 112.012th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.4 | Pace | 102.012th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 8th of 3023–18 | Road vs home | 25–1512th of 30 |
| 28th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 4th of 301584 | Elo rating | 150717th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  MIN |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–51 | 42–47 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–34 | 22–29 |
| Underdog | 16–17 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders | 45–49 | 47–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–3 ORL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.