Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerPoints31
- Onyeka OkongwuAssists7
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds14
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints35
- Paolo BancheroAssists10
- Paolo BancheroRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–125
- Q49.6Jalen Johnson defensive rebound132–125
- Q49.6Wendell Carter Jr. misses 25-foot three point jumper132–125
- Q420.2Jalen Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2132–125
- Q420.2Jalen Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2131–125
- Q420.2Paolo Banchero personal take foul130–125
- Q421.5Wendell Carter Jr. makes 1-foot layup (Franz Wagner assists)130–125
- Q430.6Dyson Daniels enters the game for CJ McCollum130–123
- Q430.6Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 2 of 2130–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:47Aaron Wiggins makes 25-foot running jump shot (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 116 – 114 ORL · ATL 42% → 60% +18ATL 42% → 60%+18 pts
- Q45:33Wendell Carter Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ATL 116 – 117 ORL · ORL 40% → 58% +18ORL 40% → 58%+18 pts
- Q41:37Paolo Banchero makes 5-foot two point shotATL 122 – 121 ORL · ORL 21% → 40% +19ORL 21% → 40%+19 pts
- Q41:27Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 125 – 121 ORL · ATL 61% → 88% +27ATL 61% → 88%+27 pts
- Q451.4Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 128 – 123 ORL · ATL 78% → 97% +20ATL 78% → 97%+20 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Magic 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -2.5
- ML ATL +120 / ORL -142
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -1.5
- ORL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- ORL: Elo 56.1%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- ORL -129
- ATL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 116.5 – 119.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +40 | Worth 40 Elo in the NBA |
| Injuries | — | −4 | Key absences: Franz Wagner |
| Elo ratings | ORL +43 Elo | ORL 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 56.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.5 | Points scored | 115.715th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 115.113th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.4 | Margin | +0.617th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 112.619th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 112.012th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.3 | Pace | 102.012th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 25–1512th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 16th of 301512 | Elo rating | 151715th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  ATL |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–42 | 42–47 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–20 | 22–29 |
| Underdog | 23–22 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders | 44–44 | 47–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 9–3 ORL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.
- Apr 1ATL 130 @ ORL 101Picked ATL 56%Hit
- Mar 16ORL 112 @ ATL 124Picked ATL 58%Hit
- Nov 4ORL 112 @ ATL 127Picked ORL 60%Miss
- Oct 24ATL 111 @ ORL 107Picked ORL 66%Miss
- Apr 13ORL 105 @ ATL 117Picked ORL 60%Miss
- Apr 8ATL 112 @ ORL 119Picked ORL 64%Hit
- Feb 20ORL 114 @ ATL 108Picked ORL 53%Hit
- Feb 10ATL 112 @ ORL 106Picked ORL 68%Miss