Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points28
- Egor DeminAssists6
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds9
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints22
- James HardenAssists7
- Evan MobleyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–125
- Q43.0Tyrese Proctor defensive rebound121–125
- Q43.0Josh Minott misses 31-foot three point jumper121–125
- Q45.2Keon Ellis enters the game for Noah Clowney121–125
- Q45.2Nets Full timeout121–125
- Q45.2Sam Merrill makes free throw 2 of 2121–125
- Q45.2Josh Minott enters the game for Michael Porter Jr.121–124
- Q45.2Sam Merrill makes free throw 1 of 2121–124
- Q45.2Michael Porter Jr. personal foul121–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:44James Harden makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaylon Tyson assists)BKN 21 – 20 CLE · CLE 71% → 76% +6CLE 71% → 76%+6 pts
- Q13:45Noah Clowney makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chaney Johnson assists)BKN 24 – 20 CLE · BKN 22% → 30% +7BKN 22% → 30%+7 pts
- Q13:00Donovan Mitchell makes 7-foot driving floating jump shotBKN 24 – 24 CLE · CLE 72% → 78% +6CLE 72% → 78%+6 pts
- Q25:45Keon Ellis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Egor Demin assists)BKN 44 – 45 CLE · BKN 18% → 23% +6BKN 18% → 23%+6 pts
- Q25:29Jarrett Allen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Peyton Watson assists)BKN 44 – 48 CLE · CLE 77% → 82% +6CLE 77% → 82%+6 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Cavaliers 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -11.5
- ML BKN +380 / CLE -500
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -8
- CLE 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 78.6%, market 80.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -400
- BKN +400 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 108.5 – 120.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1357 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +27 | +27 | BKN: Missing Tyler Bilodeau −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +226 Elo | CLE 78.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 84.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 84.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 80.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30105.9 | Points scored | 119.54th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.9 | Points allowed | 115.415th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−10.0 | Margin | +4.19th of 30 |
| 30th of 30106.9 | Offense rating | 117.05th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.9 | Defense rating | 112.915th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.7 | Pace | 101.713th of 30 |
| 20th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–33 | Road vs home | 27–149th of 30 |
| 6th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 30 |
| 28th of 301357 | Elo rating | 154911th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  BKN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–44 | 40–60 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–1 | 30–48 |
| Underdog | 32–43 | 10–12 |
| Overs–unders | 37–45 | 52–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 1–10 CLE in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.
- Mar 1CLE 106 @ BKN 102Picked CLE 82%Hit
- Feb 19BKN 84 @ CLE 112Picked CLE 88%Hit
- Oct 24CLE 131 @ BKN 124Picked CLE 84%Hit
- Mar 11BKN 104 @ CLE 109Picked CLE 86%Hit
- Feb 20CLE 110 @ BKN 97Picked CLE 84%Hit
- Dec 16CLE 130 @ BKN 101Picked CLE 80%Hit
- Nov 9BKN 100 @ CLE 105Picked CLE 85%Hit
- Mar 10BKN 120 @ CLE 101Picked CLE 75%Miss