Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Grayson AllenPoints21
- Naz ReidAssists7
- Naz ReidRebounds11
Nets- Julius RandlePoints33
- Julius RandleAssists7
- Julius RandleRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–103
- Q410.7Grayson Allen defensive rebound110–103
- Q410.7Michael Porter Jr. misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot110–103
- Q420.0Brandon Miller makes free throw 2 of 2110–103
- Q420.0Hornets offensive team rebound109–103
- Q420.0Brandon Miller misses free throw 1 of 2109–103
- Q420.0Keon Ellis personal take foul109–103
- Q423.9Sion James enters the game for Moussa Diabate109–103
- Q423.9Hornets Full timeout109–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:30Grayson Allen makes 29-foot three point jumperCHA 70 – 68 BKN · CHA 46% → 57% +10CHA 46% → 57%+10 pts
- Q34:01Grayson Allen makes 24-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)CHA 75 – 72 BKN · CHA 50% → 60% +11CHA 50% → 60%+11 pts
- Q411:34Julius Randle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mikel Brown Jr. assists)CHA 86 – 84 BKN · BKN 30% → 42% +12BKN 30% → 42%+12 pts
- Q411:16Royce O'Neale makes 25-foot three point jumper (Moussa Diabate assists)CHA 89 – 84 BKN · CHA 58% → 70% +12CHA 58% → 70%+12 pts
- Q410:14Sion James makes 25-foot three point jumper (Christian Anderson assists)CHA 92 – 84 BKN · CHA 71% → 82% +10CHA 71% → 82%+10 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Nets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- BKN -1.5
- ML CHA -108 / BKN -112
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 26%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -6.5
- BKN 26%
- Ratings vs. market
- −24.8 pts
- BKN: Elo 25.6%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- BKN -102
- CHA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 109.0 – 110.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1590 | 1355 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +40 | Worth 40 Elo in the NBA |
| Injuries | −10 | — | Key absences: Kon Knueppel, Moussa Diabate |
| Elo ratings | CHA +185 Elo | CHA 74.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 74.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 74.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BKN 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.0 | Points scored | 105.930th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.2 | Points allowed | 115.917th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.8 | Margin | −10.028th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 106.930th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 116.926th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.1 | Pace | 98.726th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–720th of 30 |
| 8th of 3023–18 | Road vs home | 12–2928th of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 11th of 301556 | Elo rating | 136329th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  CHA |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 50–32 | 38–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–14 | 6–1 |
| Underdog | 27–18 | 32–43 |
| Overs–unders | 32–50 | 37–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 5–5 BKN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.
- Mar 31CHA 117 @ BKN 86Picked CHA 92%Hit
- Dec 1CHA 103 @ BKN 116Picked CHA 62%Miss
- Oct 22BKN 117 @ CHA 136Picked CHA 65%Hit
- Mar 8BKN 102 @ CHA 105Picked BKN 66%Miss
- Feb 10CHA 89 @ BKN 97Picked BKN 62%Hit
- Jan 29BKN 104 @ CHA 83Picked CHA 52%Miss
- Nov 19CHA 115 @ BKN 116Picked BKN 53%Hit
- Mar 9BKN 99 @ CHA 110Picked BKN 56%Miss