Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
DEN went from 86% to 70% over 3 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 3:19 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Yaxel LendeborgPoints31
- Draymond GreenAssists7
- Yaxel LendeborgRebounds12
Nuggets- DeMar DeRozanPoints21
- Nikola JokicAssists11
- Nikola JokicRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game134–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter134–114
- Q424.2Ryan Nembhard makes 17-foot pullup jump shot134–114
- Q433.1Graham Ike makes 26-foot three point jumper (LJ Cryer assists)134–112
- Q444.5Zeke Nnaji makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cam Whitmore assists)131–112
- Q455.6LJ Cryer makes 25-foot three point jumper (Graham Ike assists)131–109
- Q41:09Cam Whitmore makes driving dunk (Ryan Nembhard assists)128–109
- Q41:14Bryce Hopkins defensive rebound128–107
- Q41:14Charles Bassey misses tip shot128–107
- Q41:17Charles Bassey offensive rebound128–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:56Stephen Curry makes 24-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 41 – 36 DEN · GS 38% → 45% +7GS 38% → 45%+7 pts
- Q22:34Brandin Podziemski makes 23-foot three point jumper (Yaxel Lendeborg assists)GS 55 – 52 DEN · GS 35% → 43% +8GS 35% → 43%+8 pts
- Q310:48Stephen Curry makes 27-foot three point jumper (Yaxel Lendeborg assists)GS 67 – 60 DEN · GS 48% → 57% +9GS 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q39:33Jamal Murray makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)GS 71 – 63 DEN · DEN 31% → 39% +9DEN 31% → 39%+9 pts
- Q34:30Stephen Curry makes 27-foot three pointerGS 87 – 73 DEN · GS 75% → 83% +8GS 75% → 83%+8 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Nuggets 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -7.5
- ML GS +220 / DEN -270
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -9
- DEN 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.3 pts
- DEN: Elo 81.3%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- DEN -234
- GS +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 114.5 – 122.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −22 | +82 | GS: Missing Jimmy Butler III −36, Kristaps Porzingis −25 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +255 Elo | DEN 81.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 81.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 81.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30114.6 | Points scored | 122.11st of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 116.921st of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +5.17th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 120.31st of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 115.321st of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.0 | Pace | 100.220th of 30 |
| 20th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 20th of 3015–26 | Road vs home | 28–137th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 19th of 301448 | Elo rating | 15649th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+78 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  GS |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–47 | 46–42 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–29 | 28–34 |
| Underdog | 14–18 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 48–34 | 53–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 3–8 DEN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- Mar 29GS 93 @ DEN 116Picked DEN 83%Hit
- Feb 22DEN 117 @ GS 128Picked DEN 68%Miss
- Nov 7GS 104 @ DEN 129Picked DEN 78%Hit
- Oct 23DEN 131 @ GS 137Picked GS 51%Hit
- Apr 4DEN 104 @ GS 118Picked GS 59%Hit
- Mar 17DEN 114 @ GS 105Picked GS 81%Miss
- Dec 3GS 115 @ DEN 119Picked DEN 64%Hit
- Feb 25DEN 119 @ GS 103Picked GS 59%Miss