Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Aaron GordonPoints20
- Nikola JokicAssists5
- Trevon BrazileRebounds12
Thunder- Jalen WilliamsPoints21
- Alex CarusoAssists5
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game84–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter84–96
- Q410.3Ryan Nembhard makes layup84–96
- Q413.9Ryan Nembhard offensive rebound82–96
- Q413.9Trevon Brazile misses 24-foot three point jumper82–96
- Q421.1DaRon Holmes II offensive rebound82–96
- Q421.1Ryan Nembhard misses driving layup82–96
- Q428.8Bryce Hopkins offensive rebound82–96
- Q428.8DaRon Holmes II misses 26-foot three point jumper82–96
- Q437.5Kenrich Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brooks Barnhizer assists)82–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:57Aaron Gordon makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 51 – 48 OKC · DEN 33% → 41% +9DEN 33% → 41%+9 pts
- Q39:15Aaron Gordon makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 56 – 50 OKC · DEN 42% → 52% +9DEN 42% → 52%+9 pts
- Q37:28Cason Wallace makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)DEN 58 – 55 OKC · OKC 47% → 57% +10OKC 47% → 57%+10 pts
- Q31:02Alex Caruso makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylin Williams assists)DEN 62 – 67 OKC · OKC 70% → 80% +9OKC 70% → 80%+9 pts
- Q31.7Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three pointerDEN 64 – 70 OKC · OKC 74% → 83% +9OKC 74% → 83%+9 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Thunder 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -8.5
- ML DEN +270 / OKC -340
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -3.5
- OKC 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.9 pts
- OKC: Elo 63.2%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- OKC -286
- DEN +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 114.0 – 122.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1647 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +41 | +10 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +94 Elo | OKC 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 62.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.1 | Points scored | 119.05th of 30 |
| 21st of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 107.92nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+5.1 | Margin | +11.11st of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.3 | Offense rating | 116.86th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.3 | Defense rating | 105.81st of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.2 | Pace | 100.919th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 4th of 3026–15 | Road vs home | 34–71st of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 8th of 301570 | Elo rating | 16482nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+75 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  DEN |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–42 | 47–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–34 | 43–46 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 53–35 | 55–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 7–12 OKC in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 19.
- Apr 10OKC 107 @ DEN 127Picked DEN 56%Hit
- Mar 9DEN 126 @ OKC 129Picked OKC 58%Hit
- Feb 27DEN 121 @ OKC 127Picked OKC 69%Hit
- Feb 1OKC 121 @ DEN 111Picked OKC 67%Hit
- May 18DEN 93 @ OKC 125PlayoffsPicked OKC 73%Hit
- May 15OKC 107 @ DEN 119PlayoffsPicked OKC 64%Miss
- May 13DEN 105 @ OKC 112PlayoffsPicked OKC 79%Hit
- May 11OKC 92 @ DEN 87PlayoffsPicked OKC 70%Hit