Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints32
- Ajay MitchellAssists6
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds7
Spurs- Stephon CastlePoints24
- De'Aaron FoxAssists7
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–104
- Q42.0Ja'Kobi Gillespie makes 3-foot two point shot (Maliq Brown assists)116–104
- Q47.2Spurs offensive team rebound116–102
- Q47.2Ja'Kobi Gillespie misses 23-foot three point jumper116–102
- Q411.8Spurs offensive team rebound116–102
- Q411.8David Jones Garcia misses driving layup116–102
- Q423.8Aday Mara makes 2-foot two point shot116–102
- Q447.0Jaylin Williams enters the game for Jalen Williams114–102
- Q447.0Kenrich Williams enters the game for Chet Holmgren114–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:48Jared McCain makes 27-foot three pointer (Aday Mara assists)OKC 26 – 21 SA · OKC 52% → 59% +7OKC 52% → 59%+7 pts
- Q29:02Kenrich Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)OKC 42 – 29 SA · OKC 69% → 77% +8OKC 69% → 77%+8 pts
- Q48:08Jared McCain makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 98 – 88 SA · OKC 80% → 89% +9OKC 80% → 89%+9 pts
- Q44:18Stephon Castle makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotOKC 104 – 97 SA · SA 4% → 12% +7SA 4% → 12%+7 pts
- Q43:55Jared McCain makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)OKC 107 – 97 SA · OKC 89% → 96% +7OKC 89% → 96%+7 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Spurs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- SA -2.5
- ML OKC +105 / SA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -2
- SA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- SA: Elo 57.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SA -114
- OKC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 114.5 – 117.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1643 | 1657 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +40 | Worth 40 Elo in the NBA |
| Elo ratings | SA +54 Elo | SA 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 57.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 119.73rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.9 | Points allowed | 111.78th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.1 | Margin | +8.13rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.8 | Offense rating | 117.44th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.8 | Defense rating | 109.53rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.9 | Pace | 101.714th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 1st of 3030–10 | Road vs home | 32–82nd of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301635 | Elo rating | 16382nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  OKC |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–50 | 62–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 43–46 | 44–36 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 55–42 | 48–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 9–10 SA in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.
- May 30SA 111 @ OKC 103PlayoffsPicked OKC 56%Miss
- May 28OKC 91 @ SA 118PlayoffsPicked SA 60%Hit
- May 26SA 114 @ OKC 127PlayoffsPicked OKC 59%Hit
- May 24OKC 82 @ SA 103PlayoffsPicked SA 57%Hit
- May 22OKC 123 @ SA 108PlayoffsPicked SA 57%Miss
- May 20SA 113 @ OKC 122PlayoffsPicked OKC 69%Hit
- May 18SA 122 @ OKC 115PlayoffsPicked OKC 70%Miss
- Feb 4OKC 106 @ SA 116Picked SA 77%Hit