Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Yaxel LendeborgPoints26
- Yaxel LendeborgAssists5
- Graham IkeRebounds10
Suns- Devin BookerPoints43
- Collin GillespieAssists9
- Khaman MaluachRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–131
- Q40.7shot clock turnover122–131
- Q425.5Yaxel Lendeborg makes 23-foot running jump shot (Brandon Williams assists)122–131
- Q433.2Graham Ike defensive rebound119–131
- Q433.2Yaxel Lendeborg blocks Devin Booker 's 27-foot three point step back jumpshot119–131
- Q458.1Miles Bridges defensive rebound119–131
- Q458.1Yaxel Lendeborg misses 27-foot three point jumper119–131
- Q41:06Devin Booker makes 11-foot pullup jump shot119–131
- Q41:29Devin Booker defensive rebound119–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:32Khaman Maluach makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)GS 75 – 76 PHX · PHX 60% → 70% +10PHX 60% → 70%+10 pts
- Q34:12Collin Gillespie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)GS 78 – 82 PHX · PHX 70% → 78% +9PHX 70% → 78%+9 pts
- Q33:23De'Anthony Melton makes 28-foot three point jumper (Graham Ike assists)GS 83 – 85 PHX · GS 19% → 28% +8GS 19% → 28%+8 pts
- Q32:37De'Anthony Melton makes 24-foot three pointerGS 86 – 87 PHX · GS 22% → 31% +9GS 22% → 31%+9 pts
- Q31:04Devin Booker makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jordan Goodwin assists)GS 89 – 95 PHX · PHX 75% → 84% +8PHX 75% → 84%+8 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Suns 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -9.5
- ML GS +310 / PHX -395
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -6.5
- PHX 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- PHX: Elo 73.9%, market 76.6%
- Fair odds
- PHX -327
- GS +327 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 106.0 – 115.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −79 | −9 | GS: Missing Stephen Curry −61, Jimmy Butler III −61, Kristaps Porzingis −44 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · PHX: Missing Mark Williams −11 (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | GS crossed 1 time zone and PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +181 Elo | PHX 73.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 76.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 76.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 76.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30114.6 | Points scored | 112.626th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 111.16th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.515th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 113.116th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 111.69th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.0 | Pace | 99.124th of 30 |
| 20th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–517th of 30 |
| 20th of 3015–26 | Road vs home | 25–1613th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15082nd of 30 |
| 19th of 301453 | Elo rating | 148817th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−71 Elo- Brandin Podziemski lower back injury management−13 Elo
Suns
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  GS |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–47 | 49–37 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–29 | 23–16 |
| Underdog | 14–18 | 26–21 |
| Overs–unders | 48–34 | 40–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 6–6 PHX in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.
- Feb 5GS 101 @ PHX 97Picked PHX 66%Miss
- Dec 20PHX 116 @ GS 119Picked GS 67%Hit
- Dec 18GS 98 @ PHX 99Picked GS 54%Miss
- Nov 4PHX 107 @ GS 118Picked GS 79%Hit
- Apr 8GS 133 @ PHX 95Picked GS 79%Hit
- Jan 31PHX 130 @ GS 105Picked PHX 57%Hit
- Dec 28PHX 105 @ GS 109Picked GS 68%Hit
- Nov 30GS 105 @ PHX 113Picked PHX 51%Hit