Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints23
- Jalen GreenAssists3
- Khaman MaluachRebounds6
Trail Blazers- Damian LillardPoints25
- Ja MorantAssists8
- Deni AvdijaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game82–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter82–124
- Q43.4Micah Potter defensive rebound82–124
- Q43.4Rasheer Fleming misses 12-foot jumper82–124
- Q46.8Micah Potter bad pass
turnover (Rasheer Fleming steals)82–124
- Q410.8Duop Reath makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pat Spencer assists)82–124
- Q419.5Jamaree Bouyea defensive rebound79–124
- Q419.5Jayson Kent misses alley oop layup79–124
- Q444.4Sidy Cissoko defensive rebound79–124
- Q444.4Koa Peat misses 10-foot pullup jump shot79–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:46Donovan Clingan makes 24-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)PHX 0 – 3 POR · POR 60% → 66% +6POR 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q111:02Deni Avdija makes 6-foot pullup jump shot (Ja Morant assists)PHX 0 – 5 POR · POR 66% → 70% +4POR 66% → 70%+4 pts
- Q19:54Ja Morant makes 25-foot three pointer (Donovan Clingan assists)PHX 0 – 8 POR · POR 70% → 75% +5POR 70% → 75%+5 pts
- Q19:18Deni Avdija makes 25-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)PHX 0 – 11 POR · POR 75% → 80% +5POR 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q18:42Damian Lillard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)PHX 0 – 14 POR · POR 80% → 84% +4POR 80% → 84%+4 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Trail Blazers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- POR -3.5
- ML PHX +140 / POR -166
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -1
- POR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- POR: Elo 54.3%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- POR -150
- PHX +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 114.5 – 118.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +40 | Worth 40 Elo in the NBA |
| Injuries | −9 | −12 | Key absences: Jrue Holiday, Mark Williams, Oso Ighodaro |
| Elo ratings | POR +30 Elo | POR 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 54.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30112.6 | Points scored | 115.517th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.1 | Points allowed | 115.816th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 111.822nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 112.113th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.1 | Pace | 102.88th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 15th of 3020–21 | Road vs home | 24–1714th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 17th of 301505 | Elo rating | 149118th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+98 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  PHX |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 49–37 | 45–42 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–16 | 20–17 |
| Underdog | 26–21 | 25–25 |
| Overs–unders | 40–46 | 44–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 7–4 POR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Feb 22POR 92 @ PHX 77Picked POR 59%Hit
- Feb 3PHX 130 @ POR 125Picked PHX 57%Hit
- Nov 18PHX 127 @ POR 110Picked POR 53%Miss
- Feb 3PHX 119 @ POR 121Picked PHX 64%Miss
- Feb 1PHX 108 @ POR 127Picked PHX 64%Miss
- Dec 15POR 109 @ PHX 116Picked PHX 83%Hit
- Nov 2POR 97 @ PHX 103Picked PHX 86%Hit
- Jan 14PHX 127 @ POR 116Picked PHX 67%Hit