New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints26
- Jordan PooleAssists7
- DeAndre JordanRebounds9
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints42
- Nikola JokicAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds15
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game135–141
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime135–141
- OT3.5Nikola Jokic defensive rebound135–141
- OT3.5Trey Murphy III misses two point shot135–141
- OT7.3Trey Murphy III offensive rebound135–141
- OT7.3Saddiq Bey misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot135–141
- OT9.5Pelicans Full timeout135–141
- OT9.5Trevon Brazile makes two point shot135–141
- OT11.6Trevon Brazile offensive rebound135–139
- OT11.6Trevon Brazile misses free throw 2 of 2135–139
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q448.3Aaron Gordon makes 3-foot alley oop dunk (Nikola Jokic assists)NO 126 – 124 DEN · DEN 7% → 24% +18DEN 7% → 24%+18 pts
- Q416.8Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 3NO 126 – 125 DEN · DEN 10% → 27% +17DEN 10% → 27%+17 pts
- Q416.8Jamal Murray makes free throw 3 of 3NO 126 – 126 DEN · DEN 27% → 53% +26DEN 27% → 53%+26 pts
- OT2:36Nikola Jokic makes 6-foot turnaround jump shotNO 128 – 130 DEN · DEN 58% → 74% +16DEN 58% → 74%+16 pts
- OT1:25Trevon Brazile makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)NO 129 – 133 DEN · DEN 67% → 91% +24DEN 67% → 91%+24 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Nuggets 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -11.5
- ML NO +370 / DEN -485
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -10
- DEN 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- DEN: Elo 83.9%, market 79.6%
- Fair odds
- DEN -390
- NO +390 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 114.0 – 125.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1419 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +7 | +74 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +286 Elo | DEN 83.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 87.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 86.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 79.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 122.11st of 30 |
| 24th of 30120.0 | Points allowed | 116.921st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−4.5 | Margin | +5.17th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 120.31st of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.5 | Defense rating | 115.321st of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.4 | Pace | 100.220th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 25th of 309–32 | Road vs home | 28–137th of 30 |
| 4th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301419 | Elo rating | 15629th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+76 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  NO |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–38 | 46–42 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–4 | 28–34 |
| Underdog | 31–34 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 41–41 | 53–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 2–8 DEN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Jan 13DEN 122 @ NO 116Picked DEN 55%Hit
- Nov 19DEN 125 @ NO 118Picked DEN 81%Hit
- Oct 29NO 88 @ DEN 122Picked DEN 82%Hit
- Feb 5NO 119 @ DEN 144Picked DEN 82%Hit
- Feb 3NO 113 @ DEN 125Picked DEN 77%Hit
- Dec 22DEN 132 @ NO 129Picked DEN 74%Hit
- Nov 15DEN 94 @ NO 101Picked DEN 55%Miss
- Jan 12NO 113 @ DEN 125Picked DEN 55%Hit