Indiana Pacers at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints30
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists12
- Ivica ZubacRebounds15
Pelicans- Dejounte MurrayPoints23
- Dejounte MurrayAssists7
- Yves MissiRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–120
- Q40.8Pelicans offensive team rebound123–120
- Q40.8Trey Murphy III misses heave jump shot123–120
- Q41.4Pacers offensive team rebound123–120
- Q41.4Trey Murphy III defensive rebound123–120
- Q41.4Ivica Zubac misses free throw 2 of 2123–120
- Q41.4Ivica Zubac misses free throw 1 of 2123–120
- Q41.4Yves Missi personal foul123–120
- Q43.6Ivica Zubac defensive rebound123–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:50Pascal Siakam makes 10-foot floating jump shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 114 – 113 NO · IND 44% → 61% +17IND 44% → 61%+17 pts
- Q42:00Tyrese Haliburton makes 14-foot driving floating jump shotIND 118 – 116 NO · IND 52% → 71% +19IND 52% → 71%+19 pts
- Q41:40Yves Missi makes tip in dunkIND 118 – 118 NO · NO 27% → 48% +21NO 27% → 48%+21 pts
- Q41:23Tyrese Haliburton makes 11-foot driving floating jump shotIND 120 – 118 NO · IND 52% → 74% +23IND 52% → 74%+23 pts
- Q41:11Yves Missi makes dunk (Jeremiah Fears assists)IND 121 – 120 NO · NO 15% → 36% +21NO 15% → 36%+21 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Pacers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- IND -3.5
- ML IND -162 / NO +136
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 37%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -3.5
- IND 37%
- Ratings vs. market
- −22.3 pts
- IND: Elo 37.0%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- IND -146
- NO +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 122.0 – 118.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1399 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +40 | Worth 40 Elo in the NBA |
| Injuries | −9 | — | Key absences: Jarace Walker, Aaron Nesmith |
| Elo ratings | NO +92 Elo | NO 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 63.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30112.4 | Points scored | 115.516th of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.4 | Points allowed | 120.024th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−8.0 | Margin | −4.521st of 30 |
| 28th of 30109.0 | Offense rating | 112.120th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.7 | Defense rating | 116.524th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.7 | Pace | 102.411th of 30 |
| 20th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 1–927th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–33 | Road vs home | 17–2423rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15048th of 30 |
| 24th of 301417 | Elo rating | 142822nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  IND |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–42 | 44–38 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 13–4 |
| Underdog | 36–35 | 31–34 |
| Overs–unders | 41–41 | 41–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 4–3 NO in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.