New Orleans Pelicans at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints23
- Dejounte MurrayAssists6
- Derik QueenRebounds7
Jazz- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points24
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists10
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–120
- Q41.4Pelicans offensive team rebound119–120
- Q41.4Dejounte Murray misses 19-foot pullup jump shot119–120
- Q414.3Pelicans defensive team rebound119–120
- Q414.3Jaren Jackson Jr. misses two point shot119–120
- Q435.9Herbert Jones enters the game for Derik Queen119–120
- Q435.9(00:35.9) [Pelicans] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Pelicans] charged with a timeout119–120
- Q435.9Pelicans Full timeout119–120
- Q435.9Zion Williamson offensive foul turnover119–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:56Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Lauri Markkanen assists)NO 111 – 116 UTAH · UTAH 66% → 85% +19UTAH 66% → 85%+19 pts
- Q41:32Zion Williamson makes 4-foot running dunkNO 117 – 118 UTAH · NO 19% → 38% +19NO 19% → 38%+19 pts
- Q41:01Dejounte Murray makes two point shotNO 119 – 118 UTAH · NO 36% → 64% +28NO 36% → 64%+28 pts
- Q450.5Darryn Peterson makes free throw 1 of 2NO 119 – 119 UTAH · UTAH 35% → 50% +15UTAH 35% → 50%+15 pts
- Q450.5Darryn Peterson makes free throw 2 of 2NO 119 – 120 UTAH · UTAH 50% → 65% +15UTAH 50% → 65%+15 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Jazz 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH -1.5
- ML NO -108 / UTAH -112
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -2
- UTAH 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.7 pts
- UTAH: Elo 58.2%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -102
- NO +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 118.5 – 120.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1422 | 1354 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −6 | +84 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Missing Jusuf Nurkic −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +57 Elo | UTAH 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 54.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 117.69th of 30 |
| 24th of 30120.0 | Points allowed | 126.030th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−4.5 | Margin | −8.427th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 111.921st of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.5 | Defense rating | 119.929th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.4 | Pace | 104.33rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 1–927th of 30 |
| 25th of 309–32 | Road vs home | 14–2726th of 30 |
| 4th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15091st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301423 | Elo rating | 135029th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+86 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  NO |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–38 | 41–41 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–4 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 31–34 | 35–38 |
| Overs–unders | 41–41 | 49–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 8–2 UTAH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Apr 7UTAH 137 @ NO 156Picked NO 68%Hit
- Feb 28NO 115 @ UTAH 105Picked NO 66%Hit
- Feb 26NO 129 @ UTAH 118Picked NO 68%Hit
- Mar 2NO 128 @ UTAH 121Picked NO 72%Hit
- Jan 20UTAH 119 @ NO 123Picked NO 82%Hit
- Jan 17UTAH 123 @ NO 136Picked NO 84%Hit
- Jan 23UTAH 124 @ NO 153Picked NO 55%Hit
- Dec 28UTAH 105 @ NO 112Picked NO 66%Hit