Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
GS went from 33% to 43% over 6 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, October 30 at 12:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints37
- Luka DoncicAssists5
- Walker KesslerRebounds13
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints31
- Draymond GreenAssists9
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds5
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–112
- Q40.7Lakers offensive team rebound95–112
- Q40.7Jaden Hardy misses heave jump shot95–112
- Q41.1Gui Santos makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (LJ Cryer assists)95–112
- Q416.6LJ Cryer enters the game for Georges Niang95–110
- Q416.6Malevy Leons enters the game for Brandon Williams95–110
- Q426.4Will Richard defensive rebound95–110
- Q426.4Bronny James misses running pullup jump shot95–110
- Q431.5Jaden Hardy defensive rebound95–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q254.0De'Anthony Melton makes 27-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)LAL 53 – 50 GS · GS 29% → 36% +8GS 29% → 36%+8 pts
- Q26.4Brandin Podziemski makes 27-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)LAL 53 – 53 GS · GS 36% → 45% +9GS 36% → 45%+9 pts
- Q32:35Yaxel Lendeborg makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)LAL 76 – 75 GS · GS 32% → 42% +11GS 32% → 42%+11 pts
- Q351.1Brandin Podziemski makes 22-foot three point jumper (Gui Santos assists)LAL 80 – 82 GS · GS 42% → 54% +12GS 42% → 54%+12 pts
- Q49:40Brandin Podziemski makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Stephen Curry assists)LAL 80 – 90 GS · GS 77% → 86% +9GS 77% → 86%+9 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Lakers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -3.5
- ML LAL -148 / GS +124
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -3
- LAL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- LAL: Elo 62.0%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- LAL -134
- GS +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 119.0 – 115.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1594 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +15 | −6 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Missing Jimmy Butler III −37, Kristaps Porzingis −26 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +85 Elo | LAL 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 59.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.2 | Points scored | 117.611th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.6 | Points allowed | 119.421st of 30 |
| 5th of 30+9.6 | Margin | −1.817th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.5 | Offense rating | 115.27th of 30 |
| 18th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 117.026th of 30 |
| 15th of 30102.1 | Pace | 102.016th of 30 |
| 1st of 302–0 | Road vs home | 0–125th of 30 |
| 24th of 301469 | Opponent Elo | 15387th of 30 |
| 8th of 301595 | Elo rating | 149118th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  LAL |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 51–41 | 35–47 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 31–19 | 21–29 |
| Underdog | 20–22 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders | 46–46 | 48–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 8–5 GS in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.
- Oct 21GS 105 @ LAL 127Picked LAL 66%Hit
- Apr 9LAL 119 @ GS 103Picked GS 52%Miss
- Feb 28LAL 129 @ GS 101Picked LAL 60%Hit
- Feb 7GS 99 @ LAL 105Picked LAL 54%Hit
- Oct 21GS 119 @ LAL 109Picked GS 58%Hit
- Apr 3GS 123 @ LAL 116Picked LAL 50%Miss
- Feb 6GS 112 @ LAL 120Picked LAL 62%Hit
- Jan 25LAL 118 @ GS 108Picked LAL 51%Hit