Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
LAL went from 52% to 52% over 5 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 11:35 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints23
- Deni AvdijaAssists9
- Robert Williams IIIRebounds10
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints41
- Luka DoncicAssists9
- Walker KesslerRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game138–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter138–129
- Q49.3Damian Lillard enters the game for Robert Williams III138–129
- Q411.4Trail Blazers defensive team rebound138–129
- Q411.4Matisse Thybulle misses 23-foot three point jumper138–129
- Q418.3Robert Williams III enters the game for Damian Lillard138–129
- Q418.3Walker Kessler enters the game for Jake LaRavia138–129
- Q418.3Jrue Holiday makes free throw 2 of 2138–129
- Q418.3Trail Blazers offensive team rebound137–129
- Q418.3Jrue Holiday misses free throw 1 of 2137–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:43Ziaire Williams makes 22-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)POR 120 – 120 LAL · LAL 32% → 51% +19LAL 32% → 51%+19 pts
- Q44:16Jrue Holiday makes 23-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)POR 123 – 120 LAL · POR 49% → 69% +20POR 49% → 69%+20 pts
- Q43:38Damian Lillard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 126 – 121 LAL · POR 64% → 82% +18POR 64% → 82%+18 pts
- Q42:59Deni Avdija makes 28-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)POR 130 – 124 LAL · POR 73% → 89% +16POR 73% → 89%+16 pts
- Q42:36Ziaire Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)POR 130 – 127 LAL · LAL 9% → 26% +16LAL 9% → 26%+16 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Lakers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -1.5
- ML POR +100 / LAL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -1
- LAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- LAL: Elo 54.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LAL -109
- POR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 116.0 – 117.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1587 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +91 | +13 | POR: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +32 Elo | LAL 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 52.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 116.311th of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 114.611th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.814th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 116.28th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 114.419th of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.8 | Pace | 99.922nd of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 18th of 3018–23 | Road vs home | 28–137th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 16th of 301513 | Elo rating | 15888th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+104 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  POR |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 45–42 | 51–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–17 | 31–19 |
| Underdog | 25–25 | 20–22 |
| Overs–unders | 44–43 | 46–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 3–7 LAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Jan 17LAL 116 @ POR 132Picked POR 58%Hit
- Nov 3LAL 123 @ POR 115Picked POR 76%Miss
- Oct 27POR 122 @ LAL 108Picked POR 57%Hit
- Apr 13LAL 81 @ POR 109Picked POR 65%Hit
- Feb 20LAL 110 @ POR 102Picked LAL 53%Hit
- Jan 2POR 106 @ LAL 114Picked LAL 70%Hit
- Dec 8POR 98 @ LAL 107Picked LAL 72%Hit
- Jan 21POR 110 @ LAL 134Picked LAL 73%Hit