Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints26
- Jrue HolidayAssists8
- Donovan ClinganRebounds11
Kings- Darius Acuff Jr.Points33
- Domantas SabonisAssists10
- Domantas SabonisRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–120
- Q419.6Donovan Clingan defensive rebound128–120
- Q419.6Zach LaVine misses 19-foot step back jumpshot128–120
- Q428.3De'Andre Hunter enters the game for Precious Achiuwa128–120
- Q428.3Kings Full timeout128–120
- Q428.3Donovan Clingan enters the game for Damian Lillard128–120
- Q428.3Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Ja Morant128–120
- Q428.3Deni Avdija makes free throw 2 of 2128–120
- Q428.3Deni Avdija makes free throw 1 of 2127–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:17Toumani Camara makes 27-foot three point jumper (Donovan Clingan assists)POR 62 – 64 SAC · POR 58% → 66% +9POR 58% → 66%+9 pts
- Q44:51Darius Acuff Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zach LaVine assists)POR 118 – 113 SAC · SAC 6% → 14% +8SAC 6% → 14%+8 pts
- Q43:47Toumani Camara makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)POR 121 – 115 SAC · POR 78% → 91% +13POR 78% → 91%+13 pts
- Q43:27Domantas Sabonis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Precious Achiuwa assists)POR 121 – 118 SAC · SAC 8% → 21% +13SAC 8% → 21%+13 pts
- Q42:29Donovan Clingan makes tip shotPOR 123 – 118 SAC · POR 81% → 91% +10POR 81% → 91%+10 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Trail Blazers 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- POR -9.5
- ML POR -470 / SAC +360
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -5.5
- POR 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- POR: Elo 70.5%, market 79.1%
- Fair odds
- POR -379
- SAC +379 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 120.5 – 111.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1406 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +88 | +4 | POR: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | POR +151 Elo | POR 70.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 76.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 76.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 79.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 111.028th of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 121.027th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −10.029th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 109.326th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 119.128th of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.8 | Pace | 101.117th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–720th of 30 |
| 18th of 3018–23 | Road vs home | 15–2625th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15055th of 30 |
| 16th of 301508 | Elo rating | 140625th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+97 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  POR |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 45–42 | 36–46 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–17 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 25–25 | 32–41 |
| Overs–unders | 44–43 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 7–4 SAC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- Apr 12SAC 110 @ POR 122Picked POR 93%Hit
- Jan 18POR 117 @ SAC 110Picked POR 52%Hit
- Dec 20POR 98 @ SAC 93Picked POR 61%Hit
- Dec 18SAC 133 @ POR 134Picked POR 74%Hit
- Mar 27POR 107 @ SAC 128Picked SAC 66%Hit
- Feb 6SAC 102 @ POR 108Picked SAC 52%Miss
- Nov 29SAC 106 @ POR 115Picked SAC 70%Miss
- Oct 28POR 98 @ SAC 111Picked SAC 85%Hit