Sacramento Kings at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Zach LaVinePoints28
- Domantas SabonisAssists8
- Domantas SabonisRebounds18
Clippers- Darius GarlandPoints30
- Kris DunnAssists7
- Brook LopezRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–121
- Q410.0shot clock turnover96–121
- Q434.1Precious Achiuwa makes 9-foot two point shot96–121
- Q447.7Jalen Pickett makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nick Martinelli assists)94–121
- Q452.2Nick Martinelli offensive rebound94–118
- Q452.2Nick Martinelli misses running pullup jump shot94–118
- Q458.5Emanuel Sharp bad pass
turnover (Jalen Pickett steals)94–118
- Q41:06Emanuel Sharp defensive rebound94–118
- Q41:06Kobe Sanders misses 9-foot two point shot94–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:31Darius Garland makes 25-foot three point jumper (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)SAC 0 – 3 LAC · LAC 62% → 67% +6LAC 62% → 67%+6 pts
- Q111:00Kris Dunn makes 25-foot three point jumper (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)SAC 3 – 6 LAC · LAC 62% → 67% +6LAC 62% → 67%+6 pts
- Q17:33De'Andre Hunter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Darius Acuff Jr. assists)SAC 14 – 19 LAC · SAC 24% → 29% +5SAC 24% → 29%+5 pts
- Q14:15Derrick Jones Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Keaton Wagler assists)SAC 17 – 26 LAC · LAC 73% → 78% +5LAC 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q23:56Zach LaVine makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 50 – 56 LAC · SAC 20% → 26% +6SAC 20% → 26%+6 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Clippers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -4.5
- ML SAC +150 / LAC -180
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -6.5
- LAC 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +13.1 pts
- LAC: Elo 74.7%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- LAC -161
- SAC +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 112.0 – 116.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1395 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +40 | Worth 40 Elo in the NBA |
| Injuries | −23 | −3 | Key absences: Maxime Raynaud, Dylan Cardwell, Malik Monk |
| Elo ratings | LAC +188 Elo | LAC 74.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 74.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 74.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30111.0 | Points scored | 113.824th of 30 |
| 27th of 30121.0 | Points allowed | 112.610th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−10.0 | Margin | +1.116th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.3 | Offense rating | 115.111th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.1 | Defense rating | 114.018th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.1 | Pace | 98.328th of 30 |
| 20th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 29th of 307–34 | Road vs home | 23–1817th of 30 |
| 9th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301421 | Elo rating | 152814th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−81 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  SAC |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–46 | 42–40 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 20–25 |
| Underdog | 32–41 | 22–15 |
| Overs–unders | 42–40 | 41–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 3–9 LAC in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.
- Apr 5LAC 138 @ SAC 109Picked LAC 86%Hit
- Mar 14SAC 118 @ LAC 109Picked LAC 87%Miss
- Feb 6LAC 114 @ SAC 111Picked LAC 60%Hit
- Dec 30SAC 90 @ LAC 131Picked LAC 76%Hit
- Apr 11LAC 101 @ SAC 100Picked LAC 70%Hit
- Mar 9SAC 110 @ LAC 111Picked LAC 68%Hit
- Nov 22SAC 88 @ LAC 104Picked SAC 60%Miss
- Nov 8LAC 107 @ SAC 98Picked SAC 68%Miss