LA Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Darius GarlandPoints26
- Darius GarlandAssists6
- Rui HachimuraRebounds6
Lakers- Austin ReavesPoints28
- Austin ReavesAssists9
- Walker KesslerRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–125
- Q422.1Quentin Grimes defensive rebound117–125
- Q422.1Rui Hachimura misses 28-foot three point jumper117–125
- Q425.7Luka Doncic traveling turnover117–125
- Q433.5Matisse Thybulle defensive rebound117–125
- Q433.5Luka Doncic blocks Darius Garland 's 5-foot driving layup117–125
- Q440.9Keaton Wagler enters the game for Kris Dunn117–125
- Q440.9Matisse Thybulle enters the game for Walker Kessler117–125
- Q440.9Quentin Grimes makes free throw 2 of 2117–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:34Derrick Jones Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)LAC 62 – 58 LAL · LAC 34% → 42% +8LAC 34% → 42%+8 pts
- Q21:18Austin Reaves makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAC 62 – 61 LAL · LAL 58% → 66% +8LAL 58% → 66%+8 pts
- Q310:24Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point jumper (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)LAC 69 – 66 LAL · LAC 32% → 41% +9LAC 32% → 41%+9 pts
- Q39:42Matisse Thybulle makes 23-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)LAC 69 – 71 LAL · LAL 65% → 73% +8LAL 65% → 73%+8 pts
- Q36:56Matisse Thybulle makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Austin Reaves assists)LAC 76 – 80 LAL · LAL 69% → 78% +8LAL 69% → 78%+8 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Lakers 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -8.5
- ML LAC +285 / LAL -360
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -5.5
- LAL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- LAL: Elo 70.2%, market 75.1%
- Fair odds
- LAL -301
- LAC +301 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 108.5 – 117.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1576 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −69 | +11 | LAC: Missing Brandon Ingram −13, Yanic Konan Niederhauser −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +149 Elo | LAL 70.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 67.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 68.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 75.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30113.8 | Points scored | 116.311th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.6 | Points allowed | 114.611th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +1.814th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.1 | Offense rating | 116.28th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 114.419th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.3 | Pace | 99.922nd of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 17th of 3019–22 | Road vs home | 28–137th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 12th of 301543 | Elo rating | 15777th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  LAC |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–40 | 51–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–25 | 31–19 |
| Underdog | 22–15 | 20–22 |
| Overs–unders | 41–41 | 46–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 4–8 LAL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.
- Feb 20LAC 122 @ LAL 125Picked LAL 69%Hit
- Jan 22LAL 104 @ LAC 112Picked LAC 56%Hit
- Dec 20LAL 88 @ LAC 103Picked LAL 54%Miss
- Nov 25LAC 118 @ LAL 135Picked LAL 70%Hit
- Mar 2LAC 102 @ LAL 108Picked LAC 54%Miss
- Feb 28LAC 102 @ LAL 106Picked LAL 54%Hit
- Feb 4LAL 122 @ LAC 97Picked LAC 75%Miss
- Jan 19LAL 102 @ LAC 116Picked LAC 62%Hit