Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints52
- Luka DoncicAssists10
- Luka DoncicRebounds8
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints28
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists10
- Ace BaileyRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–123
- Q45.8Luka Doncic defensive rebound132–123
- Q45.8Lauri Markkanen misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot132–123
- Q412.5Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2132–123
- Q412.5Luka Doncic makes free throw 1 of 2131–123
- Q412.5Jaren Jackson Jr. personal take foul130–123
- Q419.0Walker Kessler defensive rebound130–123
- Q419.0Darryn Peterson misses 23-foot three point jumper130–123
- Q423.2Darryn Peterson offensive rebound130–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:25Keyonte George makes 25-foot three pointerLAL 110 – 111 UTAH · UTAH 32% → 48% +15UTAH 32% → 48%+15 pts
- Q47:04Collin Sexton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 113 – 111 UTAH · LAL 52% → 68% +16LAL 52% → 68%+16 pts
- Q44:06Luka Doncic makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 116 – 116 UTAH · LAL 35% → 56% +21LAL 35% → 56%+21 pts
- Q42:22Luka Doncic makes 28-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 124 – 119 UTAH · LAL 72% → 90% +18LAL 72% → 90%+18 pts
- Q41:42Luka Doncic makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ziaire Williams assists)LAL 127 – 121 UTAH · LAL 82% → 96% +14LAL 82% → 96%+14 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Lakers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -3.5
- LAL 64%
- Fair odds
- LAL -222
- UTAH +222 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 118.9 – 112.8 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1357 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +6 | +82 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Missing Jusuf Nurkic −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAL +100 Elo | LAL 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 69.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 69.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 117.69th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 126.030th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.8 | Margin | −8.427th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 111.921st of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 119.929th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.9 | Pace | 104.33rd of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–927th of 30 |
| 6th of 3025–16 | Road vs home | 14–2726th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15091st of 30 |
| 8th of 301582 | Elo rating | 135429th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+90 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  LAL |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 51–41 | 41–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 31–19 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 20–22 | 35–38 |
| Overs–unders | 46–46 | 49–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 9–2 UTAH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.
- Apr 12UTAH 107 @ LAL 131Picked LAL 88%Hit
- Dec 18LAL 143 @ UTAH 135Picked LAL 77%Hit
- Nov 23LAL 108 @ UTAH 106Picked LAL 77%Hit
- Nov 18UTAH 126 @ LAL 140Picked LAL 84%Hit
- Feb 12LAL 119 @ UTAH 131Picked LAL 77%Miss
- Feb 10UTAH 113 @ LAL 132Picked LAL 84%Hit
- Dec 1LAL 105 @ UTAH 104Picked LAL 64%Hit
- Nov 19UTAH 118 @ LAL 124Picked LAL 82%Hit