Los Angeles Lakers at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
LAC went from 41% to 38% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, October 27 at 10:34 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Quentin GrimesPoints23
- Quentin GrimesAssists5
- Jake LaRaviaRebounds10
Clippers- Keaton WaglerPoints21
- Darius GarlandAssists5
- Baba MillerRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–87
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–87
- Q417.7Keaton Wagler makes free throw 2 of 2103–87
- Q417.7Keaton Wagler makes free throw 1 of 2103–86
- Q417.7Sandro Mamukelashvili shooting foul103–85
- Q431.0Baba Miller defensive rebound103–85
- Q431.0Quentin Grimes misses free throw 2 of 2103–85
- Q431.0Quentin Grimes makes free throw 1 of 2103–85
- Q431.0Baba Miller shooting foul102–85
- Q446.4Sandro Mamukelashvili defensive rebound102–85
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:01Darius Garland makes 26-foot three pointerLAL 14 – 17 LAC · LAC 39% → 45% +7LAC 39% → 45%+7 pts
- Q11:07Collin Sexton makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jarred Vanderbilt assists)LAL 21 – 22 LAC · LAL 51% → 59% +7LAL 51% → 59%+7 pts
- Q28:34Kobe Sanders makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brook Lopez assists)LAL 27 – 29 LAC · LAC 37% → 45% +7LAC 37% → 45%+7 pts
- Q26:46Austin Reaves makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 32 – 31 LAC · LAL 55% → 62% +8LAL 55% → 62%+8 pts
- Q25:40Collin Sexton makes 22-foot three point jumper (Walker Kessler assists)LAL 40 – 31 LAC · LAL 74% → 80% +6LAL 74% → 80%+6 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Lakers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -4.5
- ML LAL -185 / LAC +154
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -1
- LAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- LAL: Elo 54.8%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- LAL -165
- LAC +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 117.0 – 112.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1578 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +14 | −52 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Missing Brandon Ingram −13, Yanic Konan Niederhauser −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +33 Elo | LAL 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 55.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30128.3 | Points scored | 113.019th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30120.3 | Points allowed | 109.710th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+8.0 | Margin | +3.313th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30123.8 | Offense rating | 108.617th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 105.46th of 30 |
| 14th of 30103.4 | Pace | 103.413th of 30 |
| 1st of 301–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
| 23rd of 301472 | Opponent Elo | 15347th of 30 |
| 8th of 301579 | Elo rating | 153612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  LAL |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 51–41 | 42–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 31–19 | 20–25 |
| Underdog | 20–22 | 22–15 |
| Overs–unders | 46–46 | 41–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 9–4 LAC in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.
- Oct 23LAC 117 @ LAL 125Picked LAL 75%Hit
- Feb 20LAC 122 @ LAL 125Picked LAL 69%Hit
- Jan 22LAL 104 @ LAC 112Picked LAC 56%Hit
- Dec 20LAL 88 @ LAC 103Picked LAL 54%Miss
- Nov 25LAC 118 @ LAL 135Picked LAL 70%Hit
- Mar 2LAC 102 @ LAL 108Picked LAC 54%Miss
- Feb 28LAC 102 @ LAL 106Picked LAL 54%Hit
- Feb 4LAL 122 @ LAC 97Picked LAC 75%Miss