LA Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Darius GarlandPoints16
- Darius GarlandAssists11
- Derrick Jones Jr.Rebounds6
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints34
- Alex CarusoAssists6
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–108
- Q47.0Chet Holmgren defensive rebound101–108
- Q47.0Rui Hachimura misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot101–108
- Q414.2Kenrich Williams enters the game for Jared McCain101–108
- Q414.2Chet Holmgren makes free throw 2 of 2101–108
- Q414.2Chet Holmgren makes free throw 1 of 2101–107
- Q414.2Darius Garland personal take foul101–106
- Q418.7Darius Garland lost ball turnover (Chet Holmgren steals)101–106
- Q422.7Rui Hachimura defensive rebound101–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:33Gradey Dick makes 23-foot running jump shot (Kris Dunn assists)LAC 81 – 81 OKC · LAC 21% → 32% +11LAC 21% → 32%+11 pts
- Q49:02Keaton Wagler makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)LAC 85 – 86 OKC · LAC 18% → 29% +11LAC 18% → 29%+11 pts
- Q45:08Ajay Mitchell makes 1-foot two point shotLAC 90 – 92 OKC · OKC 62% → 74% +11OKC 62% → 74%+11 pts
- Q44:15Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)LAC 93 – 95 OKC · LAC 12% → 26% +14LAC 12% → 26%+14 pts
- Q43:00Derrick Jones Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)LAC 96 – 97 OKC · LAC 14% → 33% +18LAC 14% → 33%+18 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Thunder 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -8
- OKC 78%
- Fair odds
- OKC -506
- LAC +506 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 105.7 – 118.1 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1656 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −68 | −25 | LAC: Missing Brandon Ingram −13, Yanic Konan Niederhauser −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +221 Elo | OKC 78.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 84.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 83.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30113.8 | Points scored | 119.05th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.6 | Points allowed | 107.92nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +11.11st of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.1 | Offense rating | 116.86th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 105.81st of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.3 | Pace | 100.919th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 17th of 3019–22 | Road vs home | 34–71st of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 14th of 301539 | Elo rating | 16571st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−68 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  LAC |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–40 | 47–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–25 | 43–46 |
| Underdog | 22–15 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 41–41 | 55–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 1–9 OKC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Apr 8OKC 128 @ LAC 110Picked OKC 76%Hit
- Dec 18LAC 101 @ OKC 122Picked OKC 90%Hit
- Nov 4OKC 126 @ LAC 107Picked OKC 74%Hit
- Mar 23OKC 103 @ LAC 101Picked LAC 50%Miss
- Jan 2LAC 98 @ OKC 116Picked OKC 84%Hit
- Nov 11LAC 128 @ OKC 134Picked OKC 70%Hit
- Nov 2OKC 105 @ LAC 92Picked OKC 66%Hit
- Feb 22LAC 107 @ OKC 129Picked LAC 52%Miss