LA Clippers at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
MIN went from 74% to 71% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, October 30 at 12:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Darius GarlandPoints24
- Kris DunnAssists7
- Isaiah JacksonRebounds7
Timberwolves- LaMelo BallPoints24
- Bones HylandAssists8
- Rudy GobertRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–127
- Q40.1Timberwolves offensive team rebound101–127
- Q40.1Terrence Shannon Jr. misses heave jump shot101–127
- Q42.7Keaton Wagler makes two point shot101–127
- Q47.0Keaton Wagler offensive rebound99–127
- Q47.0Blake Wesley misses 32-foot three point pullup jump shot99–127
- Q411.0Zyon Pullin makes 8-foot two point shot99–127
- Q421.2Nick Martinelli steps out of bounds turnover99–125
- Q431.4Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 25-foot three pointer99–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:36Derrick Jones Jr. makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Kris Dunn assists)LAC 8 – 6 MIN · LAC 28% → 34% +6LAC 28% → 34%+6 pts
- Q17:15Rui Hachimura makes 24-foot three point jumperLAC 13 – 10 MIN · LAC 30% → 36% +6LAC 30% → 36%+6 pts
- Q17:02Jaden McDaniels makes 22-foot three point jumper (Rudy Gobert assists)LAC 13 – 13 MIN · MIN 64% → 70% +6MIN 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q16:45Darius Garland makes 27-foot three pointer (Isaiah Jackson assists)LAC 16 – 13 MIN · LAC 31% → 37% +6LAC 31% → 37%+6 pts
- Q14:55Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)LAC 16 – 18 MIN · MIN 67% → 73% +6MIN 67% → 73%+6 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Timberwolves 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -6.5
- ML LAC +225 / MIN -278
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5.5
- MIN 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 70.6%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- MIN -239
- LAC +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 108.5 – 115.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1605 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −72 | −66 | LAC: Missing Brandon Ingram −14, Yanic Konan Niederhauser −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIN: Missing Anthony Edwards −41 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +152 Elo | MIN 70.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 71.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 71.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 70.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30106.5 | Points scored | 120.45th of 30 |
| 9th of 30108.0 | Points allowed | 107.88th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +12.62nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30104.2 | Offense rating | 113.38th of 30 |
| 7th of 30105.7 | Defense rating | 101.52nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30101.7 | Pace | 104.08th of 30 |
| 22nd of 300–2 | Road vs home | 1–113th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301550 | Opponent Elo | 150716th of 30 |
| 14th of 301520 | Elo rating | 16055th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−77 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  LAC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–40 | 43–51 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–25 | 27–34 |
| Underdog | 22–15 | 16–17 |
| Overs–unders | 41–41 | 45–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 3–8 MIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Mar 11MIN 128 @ LAC 153Picked LAC 51%Hit
- Feb 26MIN 94 @ LAC 88Picked MIN 74%Hit
- Feb 8LAC 115 @ MIN 96Picked MIN 75%Miss
- Dec 6LAC 106 @ MIN 109Picked MIN 76%Hit
- Jan 6LAC 106 @ MIN 108Picked MIN 55%Hit
- Dec 4MIN 108 @ LAC 80Picked MIN 63%Hit
- Nov 29LAC 92 @ MIN 93Picked MIN 69%Hit
- Mar 12MIN 118 @ LAC 100Picked LAC 59%Miss