Miami Heat at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
LAC went from 41% to 35% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 3 at 10:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints35
- Davion MitchellAssists10
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds14
Clippers- Darius GarlandPoints26
- Darius GarlandAssists7
- Rui HachimuraRebounds9
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game117–116
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime117–116
- OT0.4Clippers offensive team rebound117–116
- OT0.4Kobe Sanders misses heave jump shot117–116
- OT1.0Klay Thompson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)117–116
- OT3.3Kobe Sanders enters the game for Darius Garland114–116
- OT3.3Baba Miller enters the game for Rui Hachimura114–116
- OT3.3Heat Full timeout114–116
- OT3.3Max Strus personal foul114–116
- OT3.8Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound114–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410.8Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2MIA 106 – 106 LAC · MIA 20% → 51% +31MIA 20% → 51%+31 pts
- Q410.8Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2MIA 107 – 106 LAC · MIA 51% → 81% +30MIA 51% → 81%+30 pts
- Q42.7Rui Hachimura makes free throw 2 of 2MIA 107 – 107 LAC · LAC 4% → 50% +45LAC 4% → 50%+45 pts
- OT2:12Klay Thompson makes 23-foot running jump shot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIA 112 – 112 LAC · MIA 26% → 53% +27MIA 26% → 53%+27 pts
- OT1.0Klay Thompson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIA 117 – 116 LAC · MIA <1% → >99% +100MIA <1% → >99%+100 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Heat 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -5.5
- ML MIA -205 / LAC +171
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- MIA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.9 pts
- MIA: Elo 49.7%, market 64.6%
- Fair odds
- MIA -182
- LAC +182 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 119.5 – 114.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −10 | −81 | MIA: Missing Giannis Antetokounmpo (40% to sit) −42 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · LAC: Missing Brandon Ingram −15, Yanic Konan Niederhauser −3, Jordan Miller −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +2 Elo | LAC 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 55.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 64.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.1 | Points scored | 108.126th of 30 |
| 28th of 30123.9 | Points allowed | 115.422nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−5.7 | Margin | −7.323rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 106.423rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.6 | Defense rating | 113.521st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.1 | Pace | 101.617th of 30 |
| 18th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 1–220th of 30 |
| 9th of 301527 | Opponent Elo | 15551st of 30 |
| 20th of 301457 | Elo rating | 149516th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−82 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–5 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 2–4 LAC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.