Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
MIA went from 73% to 71% over 2 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 3:19 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints29
- Cooper FlaggAssists11
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds9
Heat- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints29
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists11
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–112
- Q45.5P.J. Washington defensive rebound113–112
- Q45.5Zaccharie Risacher blocks Davion Mitchell 's 2-foot driving layup113–112
- Q410.0Klay Thompson enters the game for Bam Adebayo113–112
- Q410.0Heat Full timeout113–112
- Q410.0Cooper Flagg makes driving layup113–112
- Q420.4Mavericks Full timeout111–112
- Q431.1Zaccharie Risacher defensive rebound111–112
- Q431.1Cooper Flagg blocks Andrew Wiggins 's 23-foot running jump shot111–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:29Davion Mitchell makes 8-foot driving floating jump shotDAL 108 – 108 MIA · MIA 37% → 55% +18MIA 37% → 55%+18 pts
- Q42:02Cooper Flagg makes 24-foot three pointer (Kyrie Irving assists)DAL 111 – 108 MIA · DAL 45% → 74% +29DAL 45% → 74%+29 pts
- Q41:41Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 1-foot two point shotDAL 111 – 110 MIA · MIA 23% → 43% +20MIA 23% → 43%+20 pts
- Q449.5Bam Adebayo makes tip shotDAL 111 – 112 MIA · MIA 37% → 68% +31MIA 37% → 68%+31 pts
- Q410.0Cooper Flagg makes driving layupDAL 113 – 112 MIA · DAL 18% → 80% +62DAL 18% → 80%+62 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Heat 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -7.5
- ML DAL +230 / MIA -285
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -3
- MIA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.9 pts
- MIA: Elo 61.0%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- MIA -244
- DAL +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 117.0 – 124.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1422 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +15 | +16 | DAL: Missing Dereck Lively II −13, Cooper Flagg (40% to sit) −8, Santi Aldama −6 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +78 Elo | MIA 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 74.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 73.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30112.3 | Points scored | 109.026th of 30 |
| 20th of 30118.3 | Points allowed | 124.726th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−6.0 | Margin | −15.729th of 30 |
| 14th of 30109.7 | Offense rating | 103.128th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.6 | Defense rating | 117.924th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30101.8 | Pace | 105.68th of 30 |
| 14th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 0–218th of 30 |
| 10th of 301539 | Opponent Elo | 15863rd of 30 |
| 21st of 301422 | Elo rating | 145119th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  DAL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–46 | 46–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–15 | 22–18 |
| Underdog | 27–31 | 24–18 |
| Overs–unders | 37–45 | 47–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 4–2 MIA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.