San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints23
- De'Aaron FoxAssists9
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds7
Mavericks- Sergio de LarreaPoints21
- Marcus SasserAssists5
- Daniel GaffordRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–106
- Q40.3Mavericks offensive team rebound122–106
- Q40.3Walter Clayton Jr. misses two point shot122–106
- Q419.8Moussa Cisse defensive rebound122–106
- Q419.8Luke Kornet misses two point shot122–106
- Q422.1Luke Kornet offensive rebound122–106
- Q422.1Jordan McLaughlin misses layup122–106
- Q430.4Jordan McLaughlin offensive rebound122–106
- Q430.4Ja'Kobi Gillespie misses 24-foot three point jumper122–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:14Marcus Sasser makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Zaccharie Risacher assists)SA 82 – 80 DAL · DAL 14% → 21% +7DAL 14% → 21%+7 pts
- Q32:59Marcus Sasser makes 25-foot three point jumper (Morez Johnson Jr. assists)SA 84 – 83 DAL · DAL 16% → 24% +8DAL 16% → 24%+8 pts
- Q31:09Stephon Castle makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)SA 89 – 87 DAL · SA 68% → 78% +10SA 68% → 78%+10 pts
- Q335.7Victor Wembanyama makes 24-foot three pointerSA 92 – 87 DAL · SA 78% → 86% +8SA 78% → 86%+8 pts
- Q411:15Devin Vassell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SA 95 – 91 DAL · SA 74% → 83% +9SA 74% → 83%+9 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Spurs 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- SA -14.5
- ML SA -900 / DAL +600
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -5.5
- SA 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.4 pts
- SA: Elo 70.9%, market 86.3%
- Fair odds
- SA -630
- DAL +630 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 122.0 – 107.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1615 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | DAL and SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +6 | +3 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Missing Cooper Flagg −22, Kyrie Irving (40% to sit) −21, Dereck Lively II −16 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | SA +154 Elo | SA 70.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 77.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 76.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 86.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.7 | Points scored | 114.123rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 119.623rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.1 | Margin | −5.523rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.4 | Offense rating | 109.227th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 114.520th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.7 | Pace | 103.55th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–720th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3029–12 | Road vs home | 16–2524th of 30 |
| 12th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15049th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301615 | Elo rating | 142721st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  SA |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 62–44 | 36–46 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 44–36 | 9–15 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 27–31 |
| Overs–unders | 48–58 | 37–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 5–7 DAL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.
- Apr 10DAL 120 @ SA 139Picked SA 92%Hit
- Feb 7DAL 125 @ SA 138Picked SA 79%Hit
- Feb 5SA 135 @ DAL 123Picked SA 73%Hit
- Oct 22SA 125 @ DAL 92Picked DAL 61%Miss
- Mar 12DAL 116 @ SA 126Picked SA 68%Hit
- Mar 10DAL 133 @ SA 129Picked SA 69%Miss
- Nov 16SA 93 @ DAL 110Picked DAL 85%Hit
- Oct 24SA 109 @ DAL 120Picked DAL 76%Hit