Dallas Mavericks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints24
- Naji MarshallAssists6
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds13
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints23
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists7
- Ivica ZubacRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–105
- Q412.9Jarace Walker lost ball turnover (Tobi Lawal steals)121–105
- Q420.2Moussa Cisse makes two point shot121–105
- Q423.6Moussa Cisse offensive rebound119–105
- Q423.6Sergio de Larrea misses driving floating jump shot119–105
- Q436.2Walter Clayton Jr. defensive rebound119–105
- Q436.2Jay Huff misses 29-foot three point jumper119–105
- Q444.1Moussa Cisse makes free throw 2 of 2119–105
- Q444.1Mavericks offensive team rebound118–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:22Zaccharie Risacher makes 25-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)DAL 19 – 15 IND · DAL 34% → 40% +6DAL 34% → 40%+6 pts
- Q14:55Marcus Sasser makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Cooper Flagg assists)DAL 23 – 17 IND · DAL 38% → 45% +7DAL 38% → 45%+7 pts
- Q14:25Cooper Flagg makes 24-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)DAL 26 – 17 IND · DAL 45% → 52% +7DAL 45% → 52%+7 pts
- Q12:58Marcus Sasser makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)DAL 33 – 19 IND · DAL 57% → 64% +7DAL 57% → 64%+7 pts
- Q11:17Kyrie Irving makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)DAL 39 – 23 IND · DAL 62% → 69% +7DAL 62% → 69%+7 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Pacers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- IND -7.5
- ML DAL +215 / IND -265
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -3.5
- IND 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- IND: Elo 63.0%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- IND -229
- DAL +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 116.5 – 124.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1407 | 1423 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +20 | +60 | DAL: Missing Dereck Lively II −11, Santi Aldama −4 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · IND: Missing T.J. McConnell −8 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | DAL crossed 1 time zone and IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +92 Elo | IND 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 54.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30114.1 | Points scored | 112.427th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30119.6 | Points allowed | 120.425th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−5.5 | Margin | −8.026th of 30 |
| 27th of 30109.2 | Offense rating | 109.028th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 116.725th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.5 | Pace | 102.79th of 30 |
| 20th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–720th of 30 |
| 24th of 3010–30 | Road vs home | 11–3029th of 30 |
| 10th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15047th of 30 |
| 25th of 301408 | Elo rating | 142222nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+72 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  DAL |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–46 | 40–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 9–15 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 27–31 | 36–35 |
| Overs–unders | 37–45 | 41–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 2–4 IND in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.