Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints32
- Naji MarshallAssists6
- Zaccharie RisacherRebounds6
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints30
- Fred VanVleetAssists11
- Alperen SengunRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–128
- Q418.0Sergio de Larrea defensive rebound110–128
- Q418.0Jae'Sean Tate misses two point shot110–128
- Q442.3Naji Marshall makes 2-foot turnaround jump shot110–128
- Q453.3Isaiah Crawford makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)108–128
- Q459.6Bogdan Bogdanovic offensive rebound108–125
- Q459.6Bogdan Bogdanovic misses 28-foot three point jumper108–125
- Q41:21Moussa Cisse makes alley oop layup (Naji Marshall assists)108–125
- Q41:35Mavericks defensive team rebound106–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:16Alperen Sengun makes 24-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)DAL 5 – 5 HOU · HOU 70% → 75% +5HOU 70% → 75%+5 pts
- Q15:10Marcus Sasser makes 23-foot running jump shot (Naji Marshall assists)DAL 18 – 13 HOU · DAL 30% → 36% +6DAL 30% → 36%+6 pts
- Q14:55Jabari Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three pointer (Fred VanVleet assists)DAL 18 – 16 HOU · HOU 64% → 70% +6HOU 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q11:58Max Christie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)DAL 23 – 24 HOU · DAL 20% → 25% +5DAL 20% → 25%+5 pts
- Q11:29Naji Marshall makes 24-foot three point jumper (P.J. Washington assists)DAL 26 – 24 HOU · DAL 25% → 31% +6DAL 25% → 31%+6 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Rockets 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -8.5
- ML DAL +295 / HOU -375
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -6.5
- HOU 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 74.1%, market 75.7%
- Fair odds
- HOU -312
- DAL +312 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 110.5 – 119.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1414 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +40 | Worth 40 Elo in the NBA |
| Elo ratings | HOU +182 Elo | HOU 74.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 74.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 74.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 75.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30114.1 | Points scored | 115.218th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30119.6 | Points allowed | 110.04th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−5.5 | Margin | +5.26th of 30 |
| 27th of 30109.2 | Offense rating | 116.09th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 110.85th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.5 | Pace | 98.129th of 30 |
| 20th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 24th of 3010–30 | Road vs home | 30–115th of 30 |
| 10th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149525th of 30 |
| 25th of 301416 | Elo rating | 155611th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+2 Elo- Steven Adams right calf−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  DAL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–46 | 38–50 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–15 | 31–46 |
| Underdog | 27–31 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 37–45 | 41–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 6–6 HOU in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.
- Jan 31DAL 107 @ HOU 111Picked HOU 78%Hit
- Jan 3HOU 104 @ DAL 110Picked HOU 73%Miss
- Dec 6HOU 109 @ DAL 122Picked HOU 69%Miss
- Nov 3DAL 102 @ HOU 110Picked HOU 84%Hit
- Mar 14DAL 96 @ HOU 133Picked HOU 82%Hit
- Feb 8HOU 105 @ DAL 116Picked DAL 58%Hit
- Jan 1DAL 99 @ HOU 110Picked HOU 64%Hit
- Oct 31HOU 108 @ DAL 102Picked DAL 69%Miss