Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints29
- Alperen SengunAssists7
- Amen ThompsonRebounds10
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints25
- De'Aaron FoxAssists9
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–110
- Q40.0Spurs offensive team rebound114–110
- Q40.0Dylan Harper misses heave jump shot114–110
- Q40.0(00:00) [Rockets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)112–110
- Q40.1Fred VanVleet defensive rebound112–110
- Q40.1Amen Thompson blocks Victor Wembanyama's layup112–110
- Q40.6Fred VanVleet makes free throw 2 of 2114–110
- Q40.6Fred VanVleet makes free throw 1 of 2113–110
- Q40.6Dylan Harper personal foul112–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:19Dylan Harper makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotHOU 103 – 104 SA · SA 40% → 61% +21SA 40% → 61%+21 pts
- Q42:42Alperen Sengun makes 3-foot reverse layup (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 108 – 104 SA · HOU 64% → 79% +15HOU 64% → 79%+15 pts
- Q41:49Victor Wembanyama makes alley oop dunk (De'Aaron Fox assists)HOU 109 – 108 SA · SA 23% → 42% +19SA 23% → 42%+19 pts
- Q41:34Kevin Durant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 112 – 108 SA · HOU 59% → 86% +27HOU 59% → 86%+27 pts
- Q446.1Dylan Harper makes running dunk (De'Aaron Fox assists)HOU 112 – 110 SA · SA 5% → 22% +16SA 5% → 22%+16 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Spurs 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- SA -4.5
- ML HOU +154 / SA -185
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -4
- SA 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- SA: Elo 65.8%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- SA -165
- HOU +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 110.0 – 114.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1624 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −6 | +11 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Missing De'Aaron Fox (40% to sit) −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | SA +114 Elo | SA 65.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 63.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.2 | Points scored | 119.73rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.0 | Points allowed | 111.78th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.2 | Margin | +8.13rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 117.44th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 109.53rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.1 | Pace | 101.714th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 32–82nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 8th of 301564 | Elo rating | 16243rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  HOU |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–50 | 62–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–46 | 44–36 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 41–47 | 48–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 7–5 SA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.
- Mar 8HOU 120 @ SA 145Picked SA 67%Hit
- Jan 28SA 111 @ HOU 99Picked HOU 56%Miss
- Jan 20SA 106 @ HOU 111Picked HOU 61%Hit
- Nov 7HOU 110 @ SA 121Picked HOU 61%Miss
- Feb 26SA 106 @ HOU 118Picked HOU 72%Hit
- Nov 6SA 100 @ HOU 127Picked HOU 70%Hit
- Oct 28HOU 106 @ SA 101Picked HOU 56%Hit
- Oct 26HOU 106 @ SA 109Picked HOU 53%Miss