Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- John CollinsPoints23
- Cade CunninghamAssists8
- Paul ReedRebounds11
Heat- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints36
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists5
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–111
- Q42.5Nick Richards makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jovic assists)128–111
- Q412.8shot clock turnover128–108
- Q437.1Tolu Smith defensive rebound128–108
- Q437.1Simone Fontecchio misses 25-foot running jump shot128–108
- Q446.0Nikola Jovic defensive rebound128–108
- Q446.0Myron Gardner blocks Javonte Green 's 23-foot three point jumper128–108
- Q41:07Ryan Conwell makes layup (Nick Richards assists)128–108
- Q41:17Isaiah Joe makes 14-foot running jump shot (Daniss Jenkins assists)128–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:16John Collins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 3 – 0 MIA · DET 53% → 59% +6DET 53% → 59%+6 pts
- Q111:04Duncan Robinson makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotDET 6 – 0 MIA · DET 59% → 65% +6DET 59% → 65%+6 pts
- Q110:20Duncan Robinson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 9 – 0 MIA · DET 65% → 71% +6DET 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q25:05Duncan Robinson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ronald Holland II assists)DET 51 – 39 MIA · DET 75% → 81% +6DET 75% → 81%+6 pts
- Q211.5Duncan Robinson makes 26-foot three pointer (Daniss Jenkins assists)DET 65 – 53 MIA · DET 76% → 83% +6DET 76% → 83%+6 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Pistons 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DET -1.5
- ML DET -125 / MIA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -0.5
- DET 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- DET: Elo 51.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -114
- MIA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 118.5 – 117.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1574 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −41 | +19 | DET: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | DET +9 Elo | DET 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 50.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 120.92nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 118.522nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.2 | Margin | +2.313th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 114.513th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.4 | Defense rating | 112.214th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.3 | Pace | 105.31st of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–517th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3028–13 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 30 |
| 30th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 7th of 301574 | Elo rating | 147019th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  DET |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 50–46 | 46–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 36–42 | 22–18 |
| Underdog | 14–4 | 24–18 |
| Overs–unders | 46–50 | 47–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–7 MIA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.
- Mar 8DET 110 @ MIA 121Picked DET 51%Miss
- Jan 1MIA 118 @ DET 112Picked DET 62%Miss
- Nov 29DET 138 @ MIA 135Picked MIA 61%Miss
- Mar 19DET 116 @ MIA 113Picked DET 61%Hit
- Dec 16MIA 124 @ DET 125Picked MIA 63%Miss
- Nov 12MIA 121 @ DET 123Picked MIA 52%Miss
- Oct 28DET 98 @ MIA 106Picked MIA 75%Hit
- Mar 17MIA 104 @ DET 101Picked MIA 55%Hit