Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Paul GeorgePoints38
- Jayson TatumAssists11
- Jordan WalshRebounds6
Pistons- Jalen DurenPoints22
- Cade CunninghamAssists8
- Ausar ThompsonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–121
- Q40.6Cade Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2113–121
- Q40.6Cade Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 2113–120
- Q40.6Paul George personal take foul113–119
- Q41.3Cade Cunningham defensive rebound113–119
- Q41.3Payton Pritchard misses 28-foot three point jumper113–119
- Q46.7Luka Garza enters the game for Neemias Queta113–119
- Q46.7Celtics Full timeout113–119
- Q46.7Javonte Green makes free throw 2 of 2113–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31.2Baylor Scheierman makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 88 – 82 DET · BOS 63% → 74% +11BOS 63% → 74%+11 pts
- Q47:34Duncan Robinson makes 26-foot three pointer (Cade Cunningham assists)BOS 99 – 95 DET · DET 17% → 29% +12DET 17% → 29%+12 pts
- Q46:41Javonte Green makes 23-foot running jump shot (Duncan Robinson assists)BOS 99 – 101 DET · DET 44% → 60% +17DET 44% → 60%+17 pts
- Q45:50Jalen Duren makes running layup (Ausar Thompson assists)BOS 99 – 103 DET · DET 61% → 72% +11DET 61% → 72%+11 pts
- Q45:13Duncan Robinson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Daniss Jenkins assists)BOS 99 – 107 DET · DET 78% → 89% +11DET 78% → 89%+11 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Celtics 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -1.5
- ML BOS -120 / DET +100
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -1.5
- BOS 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 43.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- DET +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 112.0 – 110.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1580 | 1584 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +40 | Worth 40 Elo in the NBA |
| Elo ratings | DET +44 Elo | DET 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30114.9 | Points scored | 117.88th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.2 | Points allowed | 109.63rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+7.7 | Margin | +8.22nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.1 | Offense rating | 115.510th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 107.42nd of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.0 | Pace | 101.316th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 4th of 3026–15 | Road vs home | 31–93rd of 30 |
| 24th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 148830th of 30 |
| 4th of 301646 | Elo rating | 16127th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  BOS |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 51–38 | 50–46 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 36–29 | 36–42 |
| Underdog | 15–9 | 14–4 |
| Overs–unders | 32–57 | 46–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 7–4 DET in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- Jan 19BOS 103 @ DET 104Picked DET 55%Hit
- Dec 15DET 112 @ BOS 105Picked BOS 52%Miss
- Nov 26DET 114 @ BOS 117Picked DET 53%Miss
- Oct 26BOS 113 @ DET 119Picked DET 55%Hit
- Feb 26BOS 97 @ DET 117Picked BOS 63%Miss
- Dec 12DET 99 @ BOS 123Picked BOS 84%Hit
- Dec 4DET 120 @ BOS 130Picked BOS 86%Hit
- Oct 26BOS 124 @ DET 118Picked BOS 86%Hit