Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
CHA went from 41% to 40% over 2 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 24 at 4:25 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Davion MitchellPoints22
- Davion MitchellAssists10
- Bam AdebayoRebounds8
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints34
- Dennis SchroderAssists5
- Naz ReidRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–115
- Q40.5Heat offensive team rebound110–115
- Q40.5Davion Mitchell misses 27-foot three point shot110–115
- Q45.8Grayson Allen makes free throw 2 of 2110–115
- Q45.8Grayson Allen makes free throw 1 of 2110–114
- Q45.8Bobby Portis personal take foul110–113
- Q47.0Dennis Schroder enters the game for Moussa Diabate110–113
- Q47.0Hornets Full timeout110–113
- Q48.1Davion Mitchell makes 28-foot three pointer110–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:22Davion Mitchell makes 1-foot layup (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 102 – 102 CHA · MIA 41% → 54% +12MIA 41% → 54%+12 pts
- Q44:20Brandon Miller makes 13-foot turnaround jump shot (Dennis Schroder assists)MIA 102 – 104 CHA · CHA 47% → 61% +14CHA 47% → 61%+14 pts
- Q43:45Bam Adebayo makes 2-foot dunk (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIA 104 – 104 CHA · MIA 38% → 53% +15MIA 38% → 53%+15 pts
- Q43:19Grayson Allen makes 26-foot three pointer (Ryan Kalkbrenner assists)MIA 104 – 107 CHA · CHA 47% → 70% +23CHA 47% → 70%+23 pts
- Q41:11Klay Thompson makes 26-foot three pointer (Pelle Larsson assists)MIA 107 – 110 CHA · MIA 3% → 17% +14MIA 3% → 17%+14 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Heat 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -4.5
- ML MIA -170 / CHA +142
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -1
- MIA 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.8 pts
- MIA: Elo 46.6%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- MIA -152
- CHA +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 116.0 – 111.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | CHA and MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +21 | −64 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Missing Kon Knueppel −29, Coby White −11, Kylan Boswell −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +24 Elo | CHA 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 51.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.9 | Points scored | 116.013th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30118.5 | Points allowed | 111.27th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.3 | Margin | +4.88th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.5 | Offense rating | 116.67th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 111.710th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.3 | Pace | 99.123rd of 30 |
| 17th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 19th of 3017–24 | Road vs home | 21–2020th of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149525th of 30 |
| 19th of 301457 | Elo rating | 152815th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−64 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  MIA |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–36 | 50–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–18 | 23–14 |
| Underdog | 24–18 | 27–18 |
| Overs–unders | 47–35 | 32–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 10–2 CHA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.
- Mar 17MIA 106 @ CHA 136Picked CHA 64%Hit
- Mar 6MIA 128 @ CHA 120Picked CHA 72%Miss
- Nov 7CHA 108 @ MIA 126Picked MIA 69%Hit
- Oct 28CHA 117 @ MIA 144Picked MIA 61%Hit
- Mar 23CHA 105 @ MIA 122Picked MIA 71%Hit
- Mar 10CHA 105 @ MIA 102Picked MIA 77%Miss
- Nov 27MIA 98 @ CHA 94Picked MIA 60%Hit
- Oct 26MIA 114 @ CHA 106Picked MIA 69%Hit