Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints19
- Jalen JohnsonAssists8
- Dyson DanielsRebounds9
Hornets- Naz ReidPoints17
- Sion JamesAssists5
- Moussa DiabateRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–81
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–81
- Q420.2shot clock turnover128–81
- Q444.3Zuby Ejiofor defensive rebound128–81
- Q444.3Hannes Steinbach misses free throw 1 of 1128–81
- Q444.3Zuby Ejiofor shooting foul128–81
- Q444.3Hannes Steinbach makes driving layup128–81
- Q458.2Zuby Ejiofor makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kingston Flemings assists)128–79
- Q41:08Tidjane Salaun makes 1-foot running dunk (PJ Hall assists)125–79
- Q41:13Hannes Steinbach defensive rebound125–77
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:05Onyeka Okongwu makes 24-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)ATL 3 – 2 CHA · ATL 52% → 58% +6ATL 52% → 58%+6 pts
- Q19:26Naz Reid makes 25-foot three pointer (Sion James assists)ATL 7 – 7 CHA · CHA 38% → 44% +6CHA 38% → 44%+6 pts
- Q17:30CJ McCollum makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 15 – 9 CHA · ATL 62% → 68% +6ATL 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q16:45Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 18 – 9 CHA · ATL 69% → 74% +6ATL 69% → 74%+6 pts
- Q211:19Aaron Wiggins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kingston Flemings assists)ATL 36 – 23 CHA · ATL 77% → 82% +5ATL 77% → 82%+5 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Hawks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -2.5
- ML ATL -142 / CHA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 42%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -2.5
- ATL 40%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 40.4%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -129
- CHA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 114.5 – 112.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −40 | −48 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Missing Kon Knueppel −27, Coby White −10 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +68 Elo | CHA 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 57.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.5 | Points scored | 116.013th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 111.27th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.4 | Margin | +4.88th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 116.67th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 111.710th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.3 | Pace | 99.123rd of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 21–2020th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149525th of 30 |
| 15th of 301523 | Elo rating | 156110th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  ATL |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–42 | 50–32 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–20 | 23–14 |
| Underdog | 23–22 | 27–18 |
| Overs–unders | 44–44 | 32–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 6–6 CHA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.
- Feb 11ATL 107 @ CHA 110Picked CHA 54%Hit
- Feb 7CHA 126 @ ATL 119Picked CHA 53%Hit
- Dec 18ATL 126 @ CHA 133Picked ATL 62%Miss
- Nov 23CHA 110 @ ATL 113Picked ATL 72%Hit
- Mar 18ATL 134 @ CHA 102Picked ATL 74%Hit
- Mar 12CHA 110 @ ATL 123Picked ATL 71%Hit
- Nov 30ATL 107 @ CHA 104Picked ATL 66%Hit
- Oct 25CHA 120 @ ATL 125Picked ATL 66%Hit