Toronto Raptors at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
LAC went from 44% to 34% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, November 2 at 9:01 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Mon, Nov 2, 9:47 PM ESTJakob Poeltl out · forecast LAC 34%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Immanuel QuickleyPoints27
- Scottie BarnesAssists8
- Scottie BarnesRebounds15
Clippers- Kobe SandersPoints26
- Darius GarlandAssists8
- Isaiah JacksonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–118
- Q41.3Scottie Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2125–118
- Q41.3Raptors offensive team rebound124–118
- Q41.3Scottie Barnes misses free throw 1 of 2124–118
- Q41.3Max Strus personal take foul124–118
- Q42.7Scottie Barnes defensive rebound124–118
- Q42.7Kobe Sanders misses 25-foot fade away jump shot124–118
- Q49.3Scottie Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2124–118
- Q49.3Scottie Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2123–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:28Kris Dunn makes 26-foot three pointer (Isaiah Jackson assists)TOR 101 – 108 LAC · LAC 71% → 86% +15LAC 71% → 86%+15 pts
- Q42:44RJ Barrett makes driving layupTOR 109 – 109 LAC · TOR 37% → 54% +17TOR 37% → 54%+17 pts
- Q42:08Scottie Barnes makes 12-foot turnaround jump shotTOR 111 – 109 LAC · TOR 53% → 72% +18TOR 53% → 72%+18 pts
- Q41:26Max Strus makes 25-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)TOR 113 – 112 LAC · LAC 10% → 36% +25LAC 10% → 36%+25 pts
- Q459.0RJ Barrett makes layup (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 115 – 112 LAC · TOR 66% → 87% +21TOR 66% → 87%+21 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Raptors 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -6.5
- ML TOR -216 / LAC +179
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -2
- TOR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 58.0%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -191
- LAC +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 113.0 – 106.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | LAC and TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −12 | −80 | TOR: Missing Kawhi Leonard −66, Jakob Poeltl −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · LAC: Missing Brandon Ingram −22, Yanic Konan Niederhauser −8, Jordan Miller −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +56 Elo | TOR 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 58.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30118.2 | Points scored | 106.526th of 30 |
| 13th of 30110.3 | Points allowed | 113.815th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+7.8 | Margin | −7.322nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 105.426th of 30 |
| 5th of 30105.4 | Defense rating | 112.720th of 30 |
| 6th of 30104.5 | Pace | 100.917th of 30 |
| 18th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 1–114th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301483 | Opponent Elo | 15512nd of 30 |
| 12th of 301526 | Elo rating | 150116th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−81 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  TOR |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–42 | 42–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–23 | 20–25 |
| Underdog | 21–19 | 22–15 |
| Overs–unders | 37–52 | 41–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–5 LAC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.