Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
TOR went from 56% to 63% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, October 27 at 10:34 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Tristan da SilvaPoints20
- Franz WagnerAssists5
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds10
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints28
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists7
- Trayce Jackson-DavisRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–129
- Q46.5Alijah Martin defensive rebound99–129
- Q46.5Colin Castleton misses driving floating jump shot99–129
- Q422.0shot clock turnover99–129
- Q446.4Jevon Carter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Goga Bitadze assists)99–129
- Q457.7Alex Morales defensive rebound96–129
- Q457.7Alijah Martin misses 24-foot three point jumper96–129
- Q41:18Trayce Jackson-Davis defensive rebound96–129
- Q41:18Trayce Jackson-Davis blocks Jamal Cain 's 5-foot tip shot96–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:39Jevon Carter makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)ORL 15 – 10 TOR · ORL 42% → 48% +7ORL 42% → 48%+7 pts
- Q16:19Desmond Bane makes 23-foot running jump shot (Jevon Carter assists)ORL 18 – 10 TOR · ORL 49% → 55% +7ORL 49% → 55%+7 pts
- Q14:44RJ Barrett makes 26-foot three pointerORL 19 – 13 TOR · TOR 42% → 49% +7TOR 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q12:03Jamison Battle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)ORL 23 – 26 TOR · TOR 62% → 68% +6TOR 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q25:55Collin Murray-Boyles makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)ORL 42 – 48 TOR · TOR 68% → 75% +7TOR 68% → 75%+7 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Raptors 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -4.5
- ML ORL +160 / TOR -192
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -1.5
- TOR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 55.1%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -171
- ORL +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 109.5 – 114.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −18 | −23 | ORL: Missing Paolo Banchero −29 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · TOR: Missing Kawhi Leonard −54 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | — | −12 | TOR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | TOR +36 Elo | TOR 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 50.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30109.7 | Points scored | 113.715th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 103.73rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−6.7 | Margin | +10.04th of 30 |
| 28th of 30103.7 | Offense rating | 105.924th of 30 |
| 16th of 30110.0 | Defense rating | 96.61st of 30 |
| 4th of 30106.0 | Pace | 107.02nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
| 1st of 301593 | Opponent Elo | 144726th of 30 |
| 17th of 301506 | Elo rating | 152614th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  ORL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–47 | 47–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–29 | 26–23 |
| Underdog | 20–18 | 21–19 |
| Overs–unders | 47–42 | 37–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 5–5 TOR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Mar 29ORL 87 @ TOR 139Picked TOR 53%Hit
- Jan 30TOR 120 @ ORL 130Picked ORL 56%Hit
- Dec 29ORL 106 @ TOR 107Picked ORL 53%Miss
- Mar 4TOR 114 @ ORL 113Picked ORL 67%Miss
- Mar 2TOR 104 @ ORL 102Picked ORL 70%Miss
- Jan 21ORL 93 @ TOR 109Picked ORL 51%Miss
- Jan 3ORL 106 @ TOR 97Picked ORL 53%Hit
- Mar 17TOR 96 @ ORL 111Picked ORL 79%Hit